Holiday Airfares Hit 10-Year High: Thanksgiving Up 31%, Christmas Up 23%, Hopper Says

Flying home for the holidays costs a lot more this year, and the people who sell the tickets say it isn't going to improve soon.

Hopper's 2026 Holiday Travel Index puts the average domestic round-trip fare for Thanksgiving at $402, up 31% (about $95) from last year. Christmas averages $452, up 23% (about $85). Hopper calls it the most expensive holiday travel season in a decade.

International fares are climbing too. Hopper says Christmas flights to Mexico and Central America are up 23%, and fares to Europe are up 15%.

The numbers vary by snapshot

Hopper's index analyzed a week of flight searches in September, focused on lower-priced tickets, and adjusted for Thanksgiving's date shift. Later figures from Hopper lead economist Hayley Berg differ somewhat. She told CNN that Thanksgiving was averaging $389 a ticket, up 39% from a year earlier. She put Christmas at $452, up 22%. She told NPR that Thanksgiving fares are up about 30% and Christmas fares more than 20%.

The direction is the same in every version. The exact percentage depends on when the fares were measured.

Separately, the Consumer Price Index showed U.S. airfares up about 25% this summer compared with 2025.

Fuel is the stated cause

The airlines and Hopper point to jet fuel. Argus, the price-tracking firm, put the U.S. average at $4.90 a gallon on Thursday, Oct. 22. That is the highest single-day average Argus has recorded and more than double the price a year earlier.

Jet fuel costs in the third quarter jumped more than 60% from a year earlier because of the war in Iran, according to CNN's tally of airline results. The four largest carriers (United, Delta, American and Southwest) spent $6.3 billion more on fuel in the quarter than in 2025. That works out to $69 million more per day.

United CEO Scott Kirby said on the company's earnings call that he assumes fuel will stay expensive through all of 2027, with no end to the conflict in sight. "I certainly think pricing is going to stay," he said, adding that fares could rise even higher next year.

Airlines say they are eating the cost

The industry's position is that it is absorbing most of the shock. "The airlines themselves are eating most of that cost," Chris Sununu, head of the trade group Airlines for America, told CNBC. "And some of it unfortunately has to be passed on to the customer."

The airlines' own results show they have not recouped the full hit. Higher fares and baggage fees haven't yet offset the added fuel costs, though the carriers expect they will.

Airlines have also trimmed capacity where it hurts least. They have cut midweek, Saturday, early-morning and late-night flights, the cheap slots bargain hunters favor. Those flights can lose money when fuel spikes.

Demand is not backing down

Travelers are still paying. Delta CEO Ed Bastian told investors that consumers have shown a "limited amount of resistance" and still see airfare as "reasonably affordable." On CNBC he said, "The fares will be a function of what the market bears... we're not seeing any slowdown at all."

Bastian also said the higher fares are "sustainable" even if fuel prices fall. Airline newsletter author Zach Griff, of "From the Tray Table," said much the same: if fuel drops back to old levels, airlines are not going to simply cut fares.

Berg said holiday trips are "sticky." Families keep their traditional trips even at higher prices. Booking earlier than usual has also pushed prices up, she told CNN.

The pain lands hardest on groups. Aviation expert Gary Leff, who runs the blog "View from the Wing," said it is "a much bigger deal when you're multiplying increases by, you know, four or more passengers."

Overseas, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary predicted European fares could rise 10% to 15%, maybe 20%, next year. "You're going to see the biggest increase in airfares, I would say, in history in Europe in the next 12 months," he said in Belgium.

What travelers can still do

Hopper said booking before Halloween produced the lowest prices this year, so that window has closed. The Points Guy, using Points Path data, says there has been no major autumn surge. Prices have held high but steady since August. Last year, cash and award fares both jumped in the final weeks before the holidays.

The date-specific advice:

• Monday, Nov. 23, is the cheapest day to depart for Thanksgiving, according to Points Path.
• Coming home, Black Friday or the following Tuesday is cheaper. Sunday, Nov. 29, runs roughly 40% above Black Friday.
• For Christmas, Hopper says Dec. 18-20 are the priciest departure days. Monday, Dec. 21, or Tuesday, Dec. 22, may be cheaper.
• Leff advises checking fares after booking. Outside basic economy, most tickets no longer carry change fees, so a drop can mean a credit.

The Sunday after Thanksgiving was the busiest day ever recorded at U.S. airports last year. It is unclear whether this year's fares are a fuel-driven spike or the new floor. Kirby says fuel stays expensive through 2027, and Bastian says fares can stay high even if it doesn't.