GOP Insiders Blame Trump and Iran War for Midterm Rout, Tehran Claims Victory, and the $23B Battleship Program Faces Scrutiny

Since Democrats won the House and Senate on Nov. 3, the argument inside the Republican Party has moved from whether the loss was Trump's to how much of it was the Iran war. Two days later, the post-mortem is getting louder, and Tehran is joining in.

Republicans point at the top

Dan Eberhart, an oil drilling CEO and prominent Republican donor, was blunt with Fox News Digital. "First and foremost, this is a Trump loss," he said. Trump, he said, wanted people to consider him on the ballot, "and unfortunately, as a Republican, that's what we got."

One GOP aide told Fox News Digital that Trump's "primary revenge tour and antagonizing senators" opened the map to Democrats. Another said Trump "ignored affordability completely" and pushed out members like John Cornyn and Thom Tillis "who knew how to win tough races." That aide also blamed the SAVE Act and filibuster fights for souring the base on the majority. Neither aide was named.

The numbers behind the complaints: Democrats picked up seven Senate seats on Election Night, with Alaska and Mississippi still uncalled. In the House they gained 27 seats, according to Fox, with races still outstanding. CBS News estimates Democrats will end up with between 251 and 268 House seats.

The mid-decade redistricting push, which began when Trump ordered Texas lawmakers to redraw their map for up to five extra GOP seats, did not hold. CBS reports Republicans were on track to lose every district they tried to gerrymander. Democrats flipped a fifth California seat, Issa's open 48th District, and took South Texas territory once seen as drifting Republican.

Vance names the war

Vance went further than most of his party. In a long post on X on Wednesday, Nov. 4, he wrote: "The reason we lost is the war." He said Trump's 2024 voters did turn out this year, but many voted Democratic. Citing a pollster he did not name, he listed four reasons: the war, cost of living and inflation, Republicans not putting America first, and U.S. relations with Israel.

Donald Trump Jr. endorsed the post. The MS NOW Voter poll of about 100,000 voters across 50 states found more than 6 in 10 said military action against Iran was wrong.

Vance is a Marine veteran who served in Iraq. In 2023 he said he backed Trump because Trump would not "recklessly send Americans to fight wars overseas." Multiple current and former U.S. officials told MS NOW earlier this year that Vance privately opposed the Iran war from the start, though he became the public face of the peace talks.

Trump's own position is that the war was right and the price at the pump was the problem. He told Fox News on election night that Americans understood the importance of his Iran policy but "probably weren't willing" to pay more for gasoline in the short term. Asked Wednesday about Vance's claim, he called it "largely true" because the war raised gas prices "a little bit, short term." He added: "If I had to do it again, I'd have to do it again because long term, it's the only answer. You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon."

Tehran claims the result

Iranian officials immediately cast the vote as a verdict on the war.

Mohsen Rezaei, whom TIME identifies as head of the Supreme National Security Council, wrote that Iran "handed Trump a strategic defeat on the battlefield." Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei posted that "the process of the US's collapse has accelerated."

Parliament Speaker Mohammed-Baqer Qalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator, took a different tone: "Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message." Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told Trump that his "calculations failed" and warned that continuing the war would bring consequences "far beyond what you have already witnessed."

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sent an open letter to Americans last month urging them to vote against their government. Trump had accused Iran of prolonging the war to damage Republican prospects.

Defense budget fights ahead

Democrats take committee gavels in January. Rep. Adam Smith, expected to chair House Armed Services, has already criticized the Trump-class battleship program in a letter to Democratic colleagues. He argued the Navy needs a mix of highly survivable advanced systems and cheaper capabilities, not a fleet of nuclear-powered battleships.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the first ship, USS Defiant, could cost as much as $23 billion, with each of 14 follow-on ships averaging $18 billion. Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told The War Zone that one battleship could cost as much as 10 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.

Smith also told TIME last week that some Republicans "would support impeaching Hegseth" who might not support doing so to Trump. Rep. Thomas Massie, who lost his May primary, told CNN he will force a vote on impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth when Congress returns next week.

Mississippi still open

The Senate count is not final. In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by a little over 1,000 votes, and CBS News still rates the race a toss-up. State officials say several thousand ballots remain, including absentee ballots that count if they arrive within five business days and affidavit ballots from voters whose eligibility must still be confirmed.

Those ballots, along with Alaska, will determine the final size of the Democratic Senate majority Trump will face in January.