Mississippi Senate Race Uncalled With Colom Up 1,138 Votes as Democrats' Majority Holds at 54

Democrats already hold the Senate. The question left in Mississippi, as of today, Nov. 5, is whether they also take one of the reddest seats in the country.

Scott Colom, a district attorney, led Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 1,138 votes late Wednesday, about 49% to 48.9%, with roughly 96% of ballots counted. The Associated Press has not called the race.

The margin has moved a lot in a day. Wednesday afternoon tallies had Colom up by 43 votes, then 65. By Wednesday evening the lead was 1,138. The Guardian noted that no new batches had been reported for several hours.

Democrats' majority does not depend on Mississippi

Democrats have flipped seven Senate seats, including Texas and South Carolina, and will start the 120th Congress on Jan. 3 with at least 54 seats. Alaska is the other uncalled Senate race. Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by about 600 votes with 74% counted. Alaska accepts absentee ballots for 15 days and uses ranked-choice voting if no one reaches 50%, so that count could run more than two weeks.

If Colom wins, he would be the first Democrat Mississippi sends to the Senate since 1982. He would also be the first Black senator from the state since 1875. Donald Trump carried Mississippi by about 22 points in 2024.

"It's unprecedented for [Mississippi] to be this competitive for Democrats particularly, certainly in the last 40 years," said Aaron Hitefield, a political scientist at Mississippi State University. Polls before Election Day had pointed to a narrow Hyde-Smith win.

The ballots that decide it

Both campaigns say thousands of ballots are outstanding. Neither has given an exact number, and the secretary of state's office did not respond to NBC News about the count.

Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day count if they arrive by 5 p.m. Nov. 10. State data showed about 6,000 mail ballots had been sent out but not returned as of Monday.

Then there are affidavit ballots, the provisional ballots given to voters who lack proper ID or do not appear on the rolls. The Colom campaign estimated late Tuesday that 10,000 to 15,000 were outstanding. Under state law, they count if the voter was registered in that precinct, the voter and poll manager signed the envelope, and the voter shows correct ID within five business days.

A dispute over voter rolls sits underneath all of this. Mississippi Today reported that Republican Secretary of State Michael Watson flagged 230,000 registrations as inactive. It also reported that Watson authorized counties to use unverified Experian data in cleanup work, and that bad information wrongly inactivated legitimate voters. Watson's office did not respond to NBC's request for comment, and no response from him appears in the reporting.

Mikell Bolden, executive director of the Mississippi Democratic Party, said the party's hotline took about 2,000 calls Tuesday, many from voters told they had to cast affidavit ballots. He said those voters were sure they were registered but could not check their status.

Those are the party's claims. No verified evidence has been presented on how many eligible voters were affected.

Lawyers arrive before the count ends

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Elias Law Group, the Colom campaign's counsel, sent staff to Mississippi on Wednesday, according to a source NBC News granted anonymity. "We're prepared to litigate," Colom said Wednesday. "We have an army of lawyers."

Marc Elias wrote on Bluesky that "Scott Colom is going to be the next Senator from Mississippi. I am proud that Elias Law Group is leading the legal effort to ensure that happens."

Gov. Gavin Newsom's campaign sent a fundraising email saying the race was entering "a phase of ballot curing and possible legal fights." It added: "There is no way Republicans are giving up this Senate seat without a fight."

Hyde-Smith has not conceded. On election night she said, "We still don't have all the votes in, so we're not calling all of it tonight, but we're in a very good lead and I assure you, I will continue to be your U.S. Senator." That was before the count tightened. Her campaign manager, Jake Monssen, agreed Wednesday that thousands of ballots remain outstanding.

Colom's response when asked about her speech: "Bless her heart." He told supporters, "We will protect the process of this election. We will protect the integrity of this election."

No recount mechanism

A margin this thin would trigger an automatic recount in some states. Mississippi has no recount law, which leaves disputes to the courts.

NBC News described the recount process as likely to be "very murky." Political experts told TIME the winner may not be clear until the end of the week or even next week.

The next fixed point is 5 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 10, when the window closes for late mail ballots and for voters to bring ID for affidavit ballots. Until then, the number of ballots still uncounted is unknown, and that number will decide whether a 1,138-vote lead holds.