G7 Summit Opens Monday in Évian as European Confidence in U.S. Hits Historic Low

Since the United States and Israel began military operations against Iran in late February, transatlantic relations have deteriorated steadily, and the G7 summit set to run June 15–17 in Évian-les-Bains, France, is shaping up as the highest-stakes test of whether that damage is manageable.

A poll spanning more than a dozen European countries, cited by Agence France-Presse on June 11, put the share of respondents who view the Trump administration as an "ally" at 11 percent. That represents a structural collapse in how America's closest partners perceive Washington.

What's Actually on the Agenda

French President Emmanuel Macron is chairing the summit and has stacked the agenda deliberately. The core G7 members — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States — will be joined by the leaders of Brazil, Egypt, India, Kenya, and South Korea at Macron's invitation, according to Courthouse News.

Four Arab state leaders — from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE — have also been invited. The Strait of Hormuz remains a shipping bottleneck, and reopening it is reportedly a shared priority, according to Courthouse News.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will attend. Macron said Wednesday his participation "is very important for us because we need to rebuild consensus within the G7" on pushing Russia toward negotiations. That was a pointed acknowledgment of the friction between European governments and Trump's approach to the four-year-old war.

Trade and tech regulation round out the list. European nations want Trump to accept concessions on global trade imbalances. There is also pressure — unlikely to succeed given Washington's track record — for tougher regulation of tech platforms to protect minors. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Mistral AI's Arthur Mensch are both scheduled to attend a working lunch on that topic.

The Diplomatic Temperature

The New York Times, as quoted by Political Wire, drew a pointed historical comparison: the last time world leaders gathered in Évian was June 2003, when George W. Bush arrived having just invaded Iraq over French and German objections. Bush got cold handshakes. But the Times noted he and other leaders still "worked to maintain the veneer of like-minded countries." That veneer is now gone.

According to the Financial Times, also cited by Political Wire, Macron and Trump will be testing what the paper describes as their "bruised bromance" — a relationship that has survived several public resets but is under more pressure than at any prior summit.

Security in the Region Is Already Severe

Associated Press reported on June 14 that businesses in downtown Geneva were boarding up storefronts ahead of expected anti-G7 protests, with Swiss authorities tightening security significantly. French police were conducting border checks between Geneva and the town of Gaillard as early as June 10, per AP photo documentation.

Protests at G7 summits are routine. The security posture this year in the area surrounding the summit reflects both the scale of anticipated demonstrations and the broader tension surrounding an American president who is simultaneously leading a war and facing trade disputes with the countries sitting across the table from him.

The Fair Counterargument

Critics of the European position argue the 11% "ally" figure reflects elite-level polling in countries where anti-Americanism has deep roots independent of any specific U.S. president, and that European governments have spent years free-riding on American military spending while objecting to U.S. leadership whenever it becomes inconvenient. NATO's persistent underfunding by European members is documented and predates Trump. If Trump's pressure on NATO burden-sharing produces real increases in European defense spending, that is a measurable outcome the polling doesn't capture. The summit's value, from a pro-Trump-policy view, may lie precisely in forcing allies to choose: either step up or stop claiming the relationship is equal.

That argument doesn't resolve the Iran problem. The war that started in late February has roiled energy markets and Hormuz shipping in ways that directly harm the same European economies Trump wants buying more American goods. The summit's test is whether both sides can find practical agreements on Iran, Ukraine, and trade, or whether the gap is now too ideological to paper over.

What Happens Monday

Trump is scheduled to arrive at Évian on Monday afternoon, according to Courthouse News. The three-day summit runs through June 17. Whether any joint communiqué emerges — G7 summits traditionally produce one — is a genuine open question this year. The 2018 G7 in Canada ended with Trump withdrawing the U.S. from the joint statement on the flight home. Macron will know that history as well as anyone sitting in that room.