Eli Lilly Breaks Ground on $6.5 Billion Texas Plant as Foundayo Pill Captures One-Third of New GLP-1 Patients

Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC on Monday, September 21, that one-third of new patients starting an oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug in the U.S. are choosing Lilly's pill, Foundayo, and that the share is growing week over week. "We're confident long term" about Lilly's position in the pill market, Ricks said, adding that Foundayo rollouts in more countries are planned for later this year.

That figure is not entirely new. Reuters reported on September 14, via Yahoo Finance and NewsBreak, that Lilly had already said it captured "more than 30%" of new U.S. patients on oral obesity treatments. The one-third number Ricks gave a week later tracks closely with that earlier disclosure, consistent with his own description of gradual, week-over-week growth rather than a sudden breakthrough.

Ricks made his comments standing on 240 acres at Generation Park in Houston, Texas, where Lilly broke ground Monday on a $6.5 billion manufacturing facility, nearly a year after first announcing the project, according to CNBC. The plant is expected to be operational by 2030 and will produce Foundayo along with active ingredients for Lilly's other small-molecule drugs in cardiometabolic health, oncology, immunology and neuroscience.

A Market Still Tilted Toward Novo

The one-third figure applies specifically to new patients starting oral GLP-1 treatment, not the overall installed base of pill users. Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar said in August that Novo's Wegovy pill still held about 90% of the country's total oral obesity market, according to Reuters. Lilly separately said in August that it held roughly 61% share of the entire GLP-1 market, oral and injectable combined, in the second quarter.

Those numbers aren't necessarily in conflict. Novo built a commanding early lead with its pill before Foundayo launched in the U.S. in April, so a large share of existing oral patients are still on Wegovy even as new patients increasingly pick Foundayo. Investors betting on Novo's defense of its pill franchise have a reasonable basis for pointing to Doustdar's 90% figure as evidence Lilly still has ground to make up on total share, not just new starts.

Foundayo posted $98 million in second-quarter sales, its first three-month period on the market, Lilly said in August. Medicare's obesity drug pilot, which began in July and covers roughly 66 million beneficiaries with a $50 monthly co-pay, is expected to widen access further. Lilly Executive Vice President Ilya Yuffa told the Morgan Stanley healthcare conference that 60% to 70% of patients enrolled in that pilot are new to GLP-1 treatment altogether, according to Reuters.

Novo's Rough Monday

Novo Nordisk shares fell roughly 5% premarket Monday after the company's long-term strategy update failed to reassure investors worried about its ability to compete with Lilly, according to CNBC and Gate.com. Novo said in January it expects oral drugs to make up more than a third of GLP-1 treatment use by 2030, and analysts project the U.S. obesity drug market alone will exceed $100 billion annually by that year, per Reuters.

Lilly's Houston plant is part of a much larger reshoring push. In February 2025, Lilly committed an additional $27 billion to build four new U.S. facilities, on top of more than $50 billion in manufacturing investment the company has made since 2020. The buildout also gives Lilly political cover in Washington. The administration under President Donald Trump has pushed drugmakers toward domestic manufacturing and secured Most Favored Nations drug-pricing agreements with both Lilly and Novo Nordisk, according to Breitbart, part of a broader effort that includes the TrumpRx.com discount platform White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has promoted as a way to cut consumer drug costs.

Outside the U.S., Foundayo launched in the United Kingdom in August, priced between £100 and £120 per month through private prescription, well below the £330 monthly cost of Lilly's injectable Mounjaro in the U.K., per Quartz. The European Union had not completed its own assessment of Foundayo as of that launch. Lilly also faces new pressure in India and Canada, where generic versions of Novo's Wegovy and Ozempic sell for up to 70% less, though Yuffa said the cheaper generics have mostly expanded the overall market rather than shrinking Lilly's volume.

Separately, the FDA's decision to declare the semaglutide and tirzepatide shortage over has drawn criticism from smaller compounding pharmacies that lose the ability to sell cheaper versions of the drugs, a dynamic Breitbart has flagged as benefiting large manufacturers like Lilly and Novo at smaller providers' expense. No new FDA action or congressional response to that criticism has been reported.

For investors, the key question is whether Lilly's growing share of new patients converts into a real dent in Novo's overall installed base before Lilly's Houston plant even comes online in 2030, or whether Novo's pill retains its dominant position long enough to blunt the impact.