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Chip Stocks Get Crushed Again Friday as Rate-Hike Odds Hit 73% — Nasdaq Posts Worst Week in Over a Year

Chip Stocks Get Crushed Again Friday as Rate-Hike Odds Hit 73% — Nasdaq Posts Worst Week in Over a Year
Since the May jobs report landed Friday morning at 172,000 — more than double expectations — the rate-cut trade has been dead and buried, taking semiconductor stocks down with it. The Nasdaq is closing out its worst week since April 2025, and the Fed rate-hike probability just blew past 72%. This is the market repricing reality, and the pain is concentrated exactly where the AI hype lived.

Since the May jobs report came in at 172,000 on Friday morning — obliterating the 80,000 Dow Jones consensus estimate — markets have spent the week violently repricing every assumption that was baked into the Nasdaq's nine-week winning streak.

The final tally is ugly.

The Numbers Don't Lie

The Nasdaq Composite dropped more than 3% Friday alone, according to CNBC — its worst single-day performance since April 2025. The S&P 500 fell more than 2%. The Dow dropped 491 points, or about 1%.

For the week: the Nasdaq is down roughly 4%. The S&P 500 is down more than 2%, snapping a nine-week winning streak. The Dow managed to squeak out less than a 1% weekly gain — the only index that didn't get torched.

Chips Led the Bubble Up. Chips Led the Way Down.

Every major semiconductor name took another beating Friday, compounding the carnage that started Thursday after Broadcom's earnings report.

Broadcom fell more than 6% Friday — after already losing 12% Thursday. Total two-day collapse: roughly 18%. Marvell Technology dropped 12%. Micron Technology fell 11%. Advanced Micro Devices lost 10%. Intel dropped more than 9%. Arm Holdings slipped 10%. Nvidia shed more than 4%.

Those aren't rounding errors. That's hundreds of billions in market cap evaporating in 48 hours.

Anshul Sharma, chief investment officer at Savvy Wealth, told CNBC: "This is a bit of profit taking. The AI narrative still remains intact, but I do think that the expectations got more elevated than they thought, and I think even relatively good news can end up disappointing when it's not as high as where the expectations are."

Valuations had priced in perfection, and perfection didn't show up.

The Rate-Hike Shoe Drops

A strong economy is NOT automatically good for tech stocks when the Fed is watching.

The total probability of a rate HIKE by year-end hit 72.7% Friday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That's up from 50.5% just one day prior. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped above 4.5%. The 30-year yield crossed 5%.

Before Friday, a lot of Wall Street was still murmuring about rate cuts. That conversation is over.

Rotation Story Masks the Bigger Picture

Most of the financial press is framing this as a "rotation" story — money moving from tech into defensives — and leaving it there. That framing is too comfortable.

Consumer staples were up 2% Friday. Colgate-Palmolive, Coca-Cola, and Procter & Gamble all jumped more than 3%, according to CNBC. Healthcare advanced 1.7%, with Insulet up nearly 5% and Eli Lilly gaining almost 3%.

Yes, there's rotation. But calling this a healthy rotation misses the bigger issue: the AI trade was running on the assumption that rate cuts were coming. That assumption is gone. What we're watching isn't a rotation — it's a valuation correction on assets priced for a rate environment that no longer exists.

The Chart Pattern Nobody Wants to Talk About

Carter Worth, founder of Worthcharting.com and a regular CNBC contributor, flagged something in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: it has recouped all its relative losses versus the S&P 500 Information Technology Sector — bringing it back to a level it's failed to break through twice before.

Worth calls it a potential "triple top." His recommendation: go underweight semis relative to your tech exposure. His exact words — "Frankly, it's a coin toss here" — but he's betting on the bearish side.

Triple tops are serious technical patterns. They're not guarantees, but they're not nothing.

The IPO Market Caught Collateral Damage

Quantinuum — the quantum computing company that debuted on the Nasdaq just Thursday — fell more than 8% Friday, dropping below its $60 IPO price on its second trading day, according to CNBC. Rigetti Computing fell 13%. D-Wave Quantum slumped nearly 12%.

Quantum computing companies had been riding the AI hardware hype wave. That wave broke this week.

Winners Exist, But They're Defensive

FedEx Freight, the spinoff that began trading June 1, popped more than 8% Friday and is on track for a 6% gain on the week. Cooper Companies beat earnings — $1.21 per share adjusted versus the $1.10 consensus, per FactSet — and gained about 8%.

Lululemon got crushed 9% after cutting full-year guidance. Docusign slipped 6% on a lukewarm outlook. Guidewire Software fell 10% after posting an adjusted gross margin of 66.4% versus the 67% analysts expected — missing by a fraction but getting punished anyway.

The message from Mr. Market this week is simple: miss by a hair in a rising-rate environment and you pay for it.

What This Means for Regular People

If you have a 401(k) heavy in tech or index funds, you took a real hit this week. This isn't a crisis — but it's a reset. The AI narrative isn't dead, but the free-money era that inflated AI stock valuations is over, and the market is finally admitting it.

Higher rates mean higher mortgage costs, higher credit card rates, and tighter lending. A strong jobs market sounds great — and it IS great for workers — but it locks the Fed into a posture that squeezes asset prices.

The best economy in the room is also the one least likely to get a rate cut.

Sources

center-left CNBC Nasdaq drops the most in more than a year as chips tumble; S&P 500′s 9-week winning streak set to end: Live updates
center-left CNBC Chip stock breakout vs the rest of tech showing signs of topping out, says Carter Worth
center-left CNBC Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Broadcom, Arm, Strategy, Chipotle, Quantinuum & more
center-left bloomberg Tech Stocks Lead Market Rout as Jobs Data Stokes Growth Concerns