ASML Posts Record €11.66 Billion Quarter, Raises 2026 Outlook as Customers Eye 2029 and 2030 Orders

ASML, the Dutch maker of the machines that print the world's most advanced chips, reported a record third quarter today, Oct. 14, and told investors its customers are already talking about orders for 2029 and 2030.

Sales came in at €11.66 billion, up from €7.52 billion a year earlier. Net income was €4.96 billion, versus roughly €2.13 billion in the same quarter last year. Gross profit reached €6.70 billion.

Margins beat, revenue landed on target

The revenue number was close to expectations. Visible Alpha's consensus was €11.71 billion. The profit line is where ASML pulled ahead.

Analysts had expected net profit of about €4.13 billion, according to Invezz. Gross margin hit 57.5%, above ASML's own 55% to 57% guidance and above the roughly 55.9% analysts had penciled in.

Installed Base Management, the service and upgrade business, did much of the work. Sales there came in at €3.29 billion, up from €2.76 billion in the second quarter. Fouquet credited "continued strong demand for productivity upgrades." ASML also sold 113 new lithography systems, up from 86 a quarter earlier.

A third raise this year

ASML now expects 2026 net sales of €44 billion to €45 billion, with a gross margin around 56%. The prior guidance was €43 billion to €45 billion and a margin of 54% to 56%. Dow Jones Newswires counts this as the third upward revision of the year.

For the fourth quarter, the company guided to sales of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion and a gross margin around 57%. The top of that range sits above the LSEG consensus of €14.2 billion, CNBC reported.

ASML also spent about €4.1 billion on share buybacks in the quarter under its 2026–2028 program. An interim dividend of €1.88 per share is payable Nov. 4.

Demand running past supply

The line that will get the most attention came from Fouquet's statement. "Our customers continue to increase their short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts with us, driven primarily by their views on the size and duration of AI-related investments," he said. "In light of their demand visibility, some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030."

ASML said order book momentum has increased every quarter this year. The company now expects that supply as currently planned for 2027 and 2028 "will not fully meet the demand of our customers."

The current plan is a 30% increase in low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity in 2027. ASML had been investigating a further 30% for 2028. It is now "investigating ways" to go beyond that for 2028.

There is a caveat in the wording. "Interest in placing orders" is not an order. No customer has been named, and ASML has not put a number on the 2029 and 2030 demand.

High NA gets two big commitments

During the quarter, Samsung and TSMC committed to using ASML's High NA EUV machines, according to CNBC. High NA is the company's next-generation tool, and analysts see it as central to future growth.

ASML is the only company that makes EUV lithography machines. It is barred from selling EUV and some DUV tools to China.

The China question

In July, The Information reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that an unnamed Chinese company had begun manufacturing an immersion DUV machine. ASML dominates that less advanced segment. Some investors worry that China's push to build a domestic chip supply chain could eventually challenge European and U.S. dominance.

Analysts have questioned whether China can ramp that technology up, according to CNBC. ASML's results do not address the report.

Stock sits below its peak

ASML's Nasdaq-listed shares closed Tuesday down 1.9% at $1,717.76, according to Invezz. They are up about 60% this year but roughly 14% below the June record. CNBC puts the year-to-date gain at 56%.

Amsterdam-listed shares fell 4.2% on Tuesday to €1,509.60 as investors sold semiconductor names. Options markets had priced in a 4.6% move for the U.S. ADR after the report.

U.S. regular trading has not opened yet today. Any reaction in New York will come after the 9:30 a.m. ET bell.

The risk ASML itself points to is the same one underlying the demand: customers' views on "the size and duration of AI-related investments." If those spending plans shrink, the 2027 and 2028 supply gap shrinks with them.

The open question is how much extra 2028 capacity ASML will build, and when it decides. The company has given no figure beyond the 30% increase it previously communicated.