Anthropic S-1 Puts Total Compute Commitments at $542 Billion to $567 Billion, Sets Staggered Lock-Ups at 27 to 76 Days

Since Anthropic filed its S-1 this morning, Oct. 26, proposing a Nasdaq listing as "ANT," more detail has emerged on how much the company has promised to spend on compute and when insiders can sell.

The compute bill

The filing puts total future commitments for compute and infrastructure between $542 billion and $567 billion.

The biggest block is a $417 billion set of lease and purchase agreements signed Dec. 31, 2025. Those start between 2026 and 2027 and run from under one year to 20 years. A further $125 billion to $150 billion covers expanded agreements for capacity delivered between 2028 and 2031. Anthropic says the commercial terms on those are not finalized, so the figure is an estimate.

Separately, the filing says expected fixed or minimum guaranteed commitments under its compute agreements were about $265.6 billion. It also discloses agreements with no fixed dollar minimum and says payments under them "are expected to be significant."

The filing also lists a $42 billion convertible-note arrangement tied to a compute rental deal, a $500 million power purchase contract, and a 20-year lease for a data center that has not yet been built. In April 2026, Anthropic put $2.5 billion into escrow for a compute and infrastructure lease.

SpaceX on the supplier list

Between May and October 2026, Anthropic signed a series of deals with Elon Musk's SpaceX for up to $120.5 billion in compute through 2029, according to the filing. That capacity runs on Nvidia GPUs that SpaceX owns.

The S-1 names Amazon, Google and Microsoft as its three main cloud suppliers. It also lists Fluidstack, Nscale, Akamai and Lambda among the providers it is a customer of.

Anthropic calls its relationship with the three big clouds "multifaceted and complex." They are also competitors, and the filing warns they could "prioritize their own compute needs" and "gain insight" into Anthropic's business that "could inform their competitive strategies."

The company says a "proprietary orchestration layer," built over years, routes work across AWS Trainium, Google TPUs, Nvidia GPUs and AMD GPUs. It says that keeps costs down and limits dependence on any one supplier.

Revenue against compute

Compute was Anthropic's largest operating expense. It cost $5.6 billion in the second quarter of 2026, against $11.6 billion in revenue for the quarter. That is a little over two dollars of revenue per dollar of compute.

Anthropic says the ratio is improving. In the filing's words, revenue grew 1,368 percent year over year in the three months ended June 30, while compute and infrastructure expenses grew 300 percent. Operating losses for the half shrank to $693 million from $2.1 billion a year earlier.

The company also admits it has underestimated its compute needs in the past. CEO Dario Amodei has said Anthropic planned for 10x growth and instead saw 80x annualized growth in a single quarter. The shortfall led to rate limits and an emergency compute-sharing deal with xAI.

The risk side

The commitments are largely locked in. Motley Fool analyst coverage of the filing says about 80% of a roughly $518 billion decade-long spending plan is non-cancellable. It also says nearly a quarter of Anthropic's revenue comes from two customers, and that many larger clients are not on long-term contracts.

The Motley Fool's author wrote that he is staying on the sidelines until Anthropic "can reduce its customer concentration problem," and pointed instead to Amazon, Alphabet and Broadcom for exposure to the company.

The backdrop is rough. CoreWeave and Nebius, the so-called neoclouds, have each lost more than 30% of their value in October as credit risk rises across the data center sector, according to CNBC. SpaceX, which listed in June in the largest IPO on record at $85.7 billion raised, finished last week slightly below where its shares opened.

Lock-ups and timing

Anthropic's insider lock-up structure breaks from the standard 180-day freeze. Employees and early investors can sell on the first day of trading. More Class A shares then open up at 27, 48, 62 and 76 days after the IPO. The filing does not say how many shares are covered at each stage. SpaceX used a staggered schedule too.

A debut could come as early as November, City A.M. reported, though Anthropic has not confirmed a listing date or offer price. Bankers have reportedly targeted a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering.

Pricing is the open question. Anthropic's forward obligations of $542 billion to $567 billion come due whether or not the market accepts a valuation in that range.