Alberta Referendum: Proof-of-Citizenship Voting Leads 63% to 37%, Senate and Courts Questions Split Close in Early Results

Since Albertans voted Monday, Oct. 19 to remain in Canada by roughly 76% to 24% on the separation question, the early numbers on the other nine referendum questions show where the province actually wants change.

The answer: more provincial control over immigration and benefits, and a coin flip on rewiring the Constitution.

Immigration and voting questions pass by wide margins

With 4,501 of 5,587 voting locations reporting at about 8 a.m. on Oct. 20, every immigration and eligibility question was ahead by double digits, according to early Elections Alberta results.

• Proof of Canadian citizenship to vote in Alberta elections: 63% yes, 37% no.
• Requiring temporary residents to live in Alberta 12 months before accessing provincial social assistance: 58% yes, 42% no.
• Restricting provincially funded services to Canadians, permanent residents, or people with "Alberta-approved immigration status": 57% yes, 43% no.
• Charging temporary residents "a reasonable fee or premium" for publicly funded education and health care: 57% yes, 43% no.
• Giving Alberta more control over immigration levels and prioritizing economic migrants and Albertans in the workforce: 56% yes, 44% no.

The citizenship-to-vote question drew the strongest support of the nine. Proof of citizenship is a basic safeguard in many countries, and nearly two in three Albertans want it written into provincial election rules.

These are early, unofficial numbers. They could move as the remaining locations report.

Constitutional questions are far tighter

Voters were much more divided on structural changes, the same early results show.

• Abolishing the Senate: 53% yes, 47% no.
• Letting provinces choose and appoint judges to the provincial King's Bench and Appeal courts instead of federal appointment: 51% yes, 49% no.
• Giving priority to provincial laws over federal laws when they conflict in areas of provincial or shared responsibility: 50% yes, 50% no.
• Letting provinces opt out of federal health care, education and social services programs while keeping the federal money: 48% yes, 52% no.

A two-point margin on judicial appointments, a four-point gap on the opt-out question and a dead heat on provincial-law priority are all within the range that a late count can flip.

Separatists say the vote did not end the argument

The separation question asked whether Alberta should remain in Canada or whether the government should begin the legal process required to hold a binding referendum on separation. It was not a vote on independence itself, a point that frustrated separatists.

Keith Wilson, a leader of the separatist movement, said the final numbers could still shift. "It is fair to say that at least a quarter of Albertans feel that Alberta needs to be treated better," he said.

Jeffrey Rath, co-founder of the Alberta Prosperity Project, said: "Our movement isn't going anywhere. We've dominated the conversation in the last year."

Cory Morgan, who leads the group Pathway to Independence, said before the vote that a result near 30% would show "about one in three Albertans have had it." Polling backed up his concern about longevity. The Angus Reid Institute released a poll on the Friday before the vote that found 62% of 1,010 Albertans surveyed believe "there will never be an end to the separatist movement."

The cost question

Thomas Lukaszuk, the former deputy premier who organized the Forever Canadian movement, argues the referendum was unnecessary. His movement collected more than 400,000 signatures from Albertans who agreed the province should remain in Canada, and his citizen initiative petition wanted MLAs in the Legislature to vote on the issue rather than hold a referendum.

"We just spent $130 million in our referendum, plus additional dollars, that will add up for nothing," Lukaszuk said. He said Premier Danielle Smith "could have called a vote in the Legislature and spared us a lot of division, a lot of expenses."

Smith has framed the outcome differently. She said the early results show "widespread support for remaining in Canada" and that "Albertans have voted for a stronger Alberta in a united Canada."

Prime Minister Mark Carney, who grew up in Edmonton, said Albertans "chose unity, to build together, and to take care of each other." He said the result would let Canadians accelerate efforts to diversify trade, develop major infrastructure projects and make Canada a global energy powerhouse.

Turnout and counting

Advance and special-ballot turnout was 43.1%, Elections Alberta said, with 837,791 votes cast during five days of in-person advance voting and 519,082 by special ballot. Voting hours were extended at several locations after late openings Monday morning. The Guardian reported that delays at roughly 100 of the 1,400 polling stations pushed results back by more than two hours.

The Referendum (General) Regulation requires unofficial results to be published within 48 hours of polls closing. Official results are scheduled for Thursday, Oct. 29.

What happens next

Smith is scheduled to address Albertans live at 6:45 p.m. on Oct. 20 to discuss the results of all referendum questions for which results are available and where the province goes from here.