Alberta Voters Reject Starting a Separation Process, About 76% to 23% in Early Count

Since Premier Danielle Smith called an Alberta referendum amid pressure from separatists inside her governing United Conservative Party, the question has dominated Canadian politics. Early Tuesday, Oct. 20, voters answered it.

With more than 1 million votes counted, about 76% backed remaining in Canada. About 23% backed beginning a process that could lead to a second vote on separation. CTV News put the split at 76.4% to 23.6% when it projected the outcome, and CBC also projected a win for the remain side. Elections Alberta said it would release the final tally for the separation question by 4 a.m. MT.

What Albertans actually voted on

The ballot was not a direct vote on independence. Question 10 asked whether Alberta should remain in Canada or begin a legal process that could lead to a binding referendum on separation. Separatists were frustrated by that framing.

It was one of 10 questions on Monday's ballot. The other nine cover immigration and constitutional issues. They are still being counted, and CTV reports early results are split, with the five immigration questions running slightly ahead of the four constitutional ones. Official results on those nine are expected Wednesday morning.

The Alberta government campaigned for "yes" on the first nine questions. Smith also advocated for Alberta to stay in Canada.

Turnout and delays

More than 1.35 million Albertans, about 43% of eligible voters, cast advance or special ballots. Late openings at roughly 100 of 1,400 polling stations forced extended hours on Monday and pushed results back by more than two hours.

Elections Alberta reported more than 2.2 million valid votes cast overall, according to CTV's live coverage. The figure points to higher turnout than the province's last referendum in 2021.

Carney, Poilievre and Smith

Prime Minister Mark Carney, who grew up in Edmonton, urged a decisive vote. "Vote like Canada's future depends on it because it does," he told a rally in Edmonton on Friday. He called a separation vote "a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities for Albertans and Canadians."

Carney also pointed to Brexit, which he saw as Bank of England governor. "For the next few years, while that was being determined, there was huge uncertainty, investments stopped, the economy started to underperform," he said.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, whose seat is in Alberta, told supporters that Albertans were not "quitters." "Canada is more than a government," he said. "It is a people, a flag, a land, a history and a promise."

Smith said she would vote to remain but would not require her caucus to do the same. She has pledged to pursue a binding referendum if a majority had voted to separate. If federalists won, she has said, the secession question should be considered closed.

The separatists are not conceding

Separatist leaders say they turned a fringe cause into a movement that will not disappear. Cory Morgan, who leads the group Pathway to Independence, told Fox News Digital before the vote that the result would show "about one in three Albertans have had it." He warned that "if things don't change, it will be a growing faction in this province."

Morgan said most pro-independence Albertans do not want Alberta to become the 51st U.S. state. He added that Albertans in general are "not too thrilled with President Trump right now," which makes them less inclined to leave.

Grievances over Ottawa's handling of the energy sector drove much of the movement. Voter Dustin Degenhardt said Alberta has been treated "as, you know, a colony." Smith told the Canadaland podcast this month that she blames Carney's predecessor, Justin Trudeau, for separatist sentiment.

Polls before the vote suggest the issue may outlast it. An Abacus Data poll of 1,021 respondents found 61% expect Albertans to vote on separation again, even if most choose to stay. An Angus Reid Institute poll of 1,010 Albertans found 62% believe "there will never be an end to the separatist movement."

The U.S. factor

Trump's trade war and annexation talk hung over the campaign. According to AFP, Elon Musk posted on X this month that Alberta should separate, and separatist leaders have held meetings at the U.S. State Department and met Republican political operatives. Carney told the Edmonton rally that "some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us."

A fire at a military base in Alberta killed at least four soldiers and injured dozens in the days before the vote.

What comes next for Smith

Smith's problem now is internal. Writing before the vote, Morgan argued a solid remain result would give her "breathing room" but not a lasting settlement, since the sovereigntist faction in her party is significant and a provincial election year is approaching.

He wrote that she would need tangible progress on the grievances behind the movement, such as the proposed Pacific Link pipeline, or risk a revolt by impatient independence supporters. Whether Smith can deliver that, and what the nine other questions show on Wednesday, are the open items.

Smith has said a federalist win should close the secession question. Separatist leaders have said it will not.