Trump Says Sanctions Would Have Halted Hubbard Talks, as Kremlin Agrees to Resume Trilateral Peace Talks

Since Trump waived Russia sanctions by executive order late on Friday, Oct. 16, the White House has been defending the move against bipartisan criticism. On Wednesday, Oct. 21, it got a new argument: the release of retired teacher Stephen Hubbard.

Hubbard, 74, is out of Russian custody after more than four years. Trump announced it on Truth Social, saying he asked Vladimir Putin directly in a phone call last week and that the U.S. "was not required to give anything in return." He wrote that there was "no 'swap' necessary."

In a separate post, Trump said "numerous people, who requested that sanctions be immediately imposed on Russia, have called to apologize" because they did not know he was negotiating Hubbard's release. "If sanctions would have been placed, certainly those negotiations would have come to a complete and total halt," he wrote.

That is Trump's account of cause and effect. He has not named the people he says apologized.

The handoff in St. Petersburg

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff announced the release during his meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg. "Because of you, he's going home to his family," Witkoff told the Russian leader. Putin said Hubbard was already at Pulkovo Airport.

A video shared with CNN showed Hubbard meeting Witkoff and Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev at the airport. He was standing and walking on his own. His family had voiced concern about his health.

Witkoff called Putin a "humanitarian." Putin is subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant.

Hubbard is flying to Washington to see his family, then to a military facility in Texas for the government's program for former detainees. His son, Joseph Coleman, thanked Trump and other U.S. officials.

Russian prosecutors said Hubbard signed a contract with Ukraine's military after the February 2022 invasion and fought for about two months before capture near Izyum. Investigators said he was paid $1,000 a month. His family and the State Department called the charges fabricated, and the State Department had classified him as wrongfully detained.

A Moscow court sentenced him in 2024 to almost seven years.

Talks to resume

Kremlin officials said Putin agreed to resume trilateral talks among Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. after meeting Witkoff, according to the Associated Press. The meeting followed Witkoff's sessions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders in Oslo a day earlier. Jared Kushner was expected to join the Putin meeting virtually.

Relations with Kyiv are strained. Ukraine has accused the U.S. of limiting intelligence sharing on incoming Russian missiles, slowing Starlink service and delaying weapons deliveries. Zelensky has grown more critical of Trump since the sanctions waiver and the outage of Starshield, the military version of Starlink.

CNN noted that the Hubbard release comes as Trump faces accusations of cozying up to Moscow at the expense of Ukraine. The waiver drew criticism from both parties.

The Graham angle

The waiver touched sanctions in a legislative package named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died in July. His sister, Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.), was appointed to his seat by Gov. Henry McMaster and had never held office.

Some Republicans have called the waiver a slight on Lindsey Graham's legacy. Darline Graham did not criticize Trump. "The president and I share the same goal, which is to end the war, get gas and diesel prices down," she told the Associated Press on Saturday. "The sanctions bill is one of the tools he can use to do that. It's up to him whether or not he chooses to use it."

She added: "Personally, I would choose to keep the pressure on Russia."

Trump was slated to campaign with her in Clemson, S.C., at 7 p.m. EDT Wednesday, the latest stop in a seven-day, seven-stop swing less than two weeks before Election Day. Decision Desk HQ gives Graham a 70 percent chance of beating Democrat Annie Andrews.

Moscow's treatment of Western business

Russia has deepened a crackdown on European companies in response to Europe's support for Ukraine while largely sparing U.S. firms as Moscow courts business ties with Washington, Russian officials and U.S. business people said Oct. 21.

What is still open

The sequence is on the record. Trump's call to Putin came last week. The waiver followed late Friday. Hubbard was freed Wednesday. Trump says no concession was made and that sanctions would have killed the deal. Critics, including Zelensky and members of both parties, object to the waiver itself. Neither side has produced a document showing what, if anything, Moscow was told about sanctions during the Hubbard talks.

Trump told reporters on Oct. 20 to "watch what happens" in the coming days. Whether the resumed trilateral talks produce anything, and whether the sanctions waiver stays in force while they do, are the next tests.

Hubbard's flight to Texas for treatment is the next concrete step.