Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Gulf, Could Become Hurricane Isaias by Thursday and Hit Gulf Coast This Weekend

Tropical Depression Nine formed in the southwestern Gulf on Tuesday afternoon, and forecasters expect it to become the 2026 Atlantic season's ninth named storm and possibly its first hurricane within days.

As of the National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. advisory Tuesday, the system was located about 380 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, and roughly 630 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were 35 mph, and the storm was crawling east at 5 mph, according to the Sun Sentinel's reporting on the advisory.

The NHC expects the depression to reach tropical storm strength by early Wednesday, at which point it would be named Isaias, pronounced "ees-ah-EE-ahs." Forecasters project it will keep strengthening into a hurricane by Thursday.

Latest first hurricane in 121 years

If Isaias reaches hurricane strength, it would be the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season. According to the Associated Press, as reported by The Guardian, the Atlantic hasn't gone this long without a first hurricane since October 8, 1905.

The Guardian and CBS News both tie the slow season to this year's strong El Niño, which is warming the Pacific and fueling more storms there while simultaneously increasing wind shear over the Atlantic, a factor that tends to tear apart developing tropical systems before they can intensify.

Where it's headed

Forecasters expect the storm to track east-northeast over the next few days before making a sharper turn to the northeast on Friday, passing north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approaching the northern Gulf Coast by Friday, according to the NHC's advisory cited by the Sun Sentinel.

The range of possible landfall locations stretches from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, according to AccuWeather and WBRZ. A landfall is possible as early as Friday night, with some models pushing it into Saturday or Sunday.

The NHC's current forecast has the storm's winds peaking at 100 mph by Friday evening, which would make it a Category 2 hurricane, before it moves inland Saturday afternoon. AccuWeather hurricane expert Nicholas Arman said the storm "is already becoming better organized faster than expected, and the environment around it is becoming increasingly favorable for strengthening," citing warm Gulf waters and favorable upper-level winds.

Real uncertainty, not just hype

Forecasters face genuine gaps in their predictions. WBRZ in Baton Rouge described a wide spread of model outcomes, ranging from "a negligible surface low pressure to a low-end hurricane." Five days out, intensity forecasts carry real error bars, and anyone along the coast treating a 100 mph Category 2 as locked in is getting ahead of the data.

AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva said the storm's track should let it avoid the strongest wind shear until late in the week, when it nears the central Gulf Coast and should start losing intensity. Weather.com's forecast agreed shear will likely cap the storm near landfall, putting the most likely outcome at a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. The NHC itself flagged "significant uncertainty" in exactly where the storm turns northeast and how fast it accelerates toward shore.

What forecasters agree on regardless of the storm's final name or strength: heavy rain is coming. The NHC expects 3 to 6 inches of rain across the central Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle between Friday and the weekend, with isolated totals up to 10 inches possible. CBS News and Weather.com both note the moisture plume could push into the Ohio Valley and Northeast by the middle of next week.

Florida declares emergency

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order Tuesday declaring a state of emergency for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend region. "Floridians should take this time to get disaster plans in place and ensure their hurricane supply kit is stocked," DeSantis said in a statement reported by the Sun Sentinel. The order is aimed at freeing up state resources and preparation time ahead of a storm whose exact track isn't locked in yet.

The NHC has scheduled Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flights into the system for Wednesday, and a NOAA Gulfstream jet is already sampling atmospheric conditions to feed data into the next round of model runs, according to WBRZ. Separately, a different tropical wave has already triggered flooding and landslides in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, where schools were closed Tuesday, the Associated Press reported.

The next scheduled NHC advisories through Wednesday and Thursday will determine whether Isaias forms on schedule, how fast it strengthens, and exactly where along the Louisiana-to-Florida Panhandle stretch it ultimately comes ashore.