The Race Is Now. What Just Changed.

Early voting in the Texas Republican Senate runoff opened Monday, May 18 and runs through Friday only. Election Day is Tuesday, May 26. This thing is happening fast.

Both John Cornyn and Ken Paxton were on the trail Friday. Paxton spoke to the grassroots group Restore the Republic in Little Elm. Cornyn was in Waco. According to CBS News, Paxton told the crowd he's "accomplished more in any two-week period than Cornyn accomplished in his 42 years in public service." Cornyn fired back by hammering Paxton's ethics record at the attorney general's office — calling it "bad judgment," "bad choices," and saying Paxton "lied to Texas taxpayers."

Both men need to be in Texas. One of them might not be able to get there.

Tillis Is Trying to Free Cornyn From Washington

Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) warned Senate Republican colleagues Monday morning — in an email and, according to Axios, "in unequivocal terms" — that he will NOT vote for the budget reconciliation bill if leadership brings it to the floor this week.

Tillis explicitly told colleagues that forcing a vote now would keep Cornyn trapped in Washington for roll call votes during the final days before his runoff election. According to Breitbart's reporting on the Axios piece, Tillis is "fuming" over what happened to Louisiana's Bill Cassidy — who got primaried out — and sees a direct parallel here.

Tillis's stated policy concerns include funding for Trump's ballroom and Medicaid-related cuts — echoes of his "One Big Beautiful Bill" opposition that cost him his own Senate seat. But the political motivation is equally apparent: he wants Cornyn on a plane to Texas, not sitting through a vote-a-rama in D.C.

Republican leadership is still planning to move the bill Thursday after a Wednesday committee vote, according to Axios. Whether that changes depends on how many votes Tillis can actually pull.

The IRUSA Story Gets Worse for Cornyn

New reporting from Breitbart shows Cornyn didn't just praise American Islamic Relief (IRUSA) in public letters — he voted for legislation that sent U.S. taxpayer dollars to the group.

The specifics: Through the fiscal year 2016 appropriations bill, which passed 65-33 with Cornyn's support, Islamic Relief Worldwide (IRW) received a $100,000 USAID grant and a $270,000 CDC sub-award. IRUSA — IRW's American branch — was later documented as the worldwide organization's largest funding source, transferring tens of millions of dollars annually in 2021 and 2022 according to Fox News's review of financial disclosures.

The State Department officially dropped IRW in January 2021, citing senior leaders who praised Hamas and referred to Jewish people as "the grandchildren of monkeys and pigs." The department's own statement in December 2020 called for "zero tolerance" for IRW's antisemitism and "glorification of violence."

IRUSA also gave $10,000 grants in both 2020 and 2021 to the East Plano Islamic Center — the mosque behind the controversial EPIC City project, a planned 1,000-home Muslim community in Texas that Cornyn himself wrote to the DOJ about last year, citing concerns about Sharia Law.

Cornyn was asking the DOJ to investigate a mosque that was funded by an organization that was funded, in part, by bills Cornyn voted for. CBS News and Texas Tribune have NOT prominently covered the IRUSA funding angle. They've focused on Paxton's ethics record. Both stories are real. Only one side is getting full scrutiny from legacy Texas media.

The Numbers: Dead Heat, and a Democrat Who Could Actually Win

A University of Houston Hobby School poll — conducted before early voting opened — had Paxton leading Cornyn 48% to 45% among likely Republican runoff voters, with 7% undecided. Paxton's favorables were 50/43. Cornyn's were 47/49 — meaning more Republicans view Cornyn unfavorably than favorably. That's a brutal number for an incumbent.

According to The Hill's reporting on new polling, Democratic nominee James Talarico is in a dead heat with BOTH Republicans in a hypothetical general election matchup. The winner of this runoff doesn't coast into the Senate. They walk into a competitive November race against a candidate who is actively consolidating Democratic energy in a state that's trending.

Texas Tribune notes that pro-Cornyn forces have outspent Paxton's side more than four to one in the runoff, after spending roughly $69 million — 17 times Paxton's total — in the March primary. Cornyn has the establishment money. Paxton has the grassroots energy. That dynamic has defined this race from day one.

What's at Stake

This is no longer a background story about Texas GOP politics. It's a live situation with early ballots being cast right now. A sitting senator may be stuck in Washington while his runoff opponent campaigns freely across the state. A funding trail connects Cornyn to a group the State Department called antisemitic. And the Republican nominee — whoever it is — faces a Democrat with real momentum in November.

Regular Texans who vote Republican in every election are facing a choice between two men who both come with serious baggage. Cornyn's is financial and institutional. Paxton's is personal and legal. One of them will be on the ballot in November, when the stakes get even higher.