Tillis Says Trump's Paxton Endorsement Was a 'Colossal Mistake' as Cash and Polling Gaps Widen in Texas Senate Race

Since Trump endorsed Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn days before the May Texas Republican primary, the financial and polling gap in that race has only grown starker. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) laid out the numbers Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union," telling Jake Tapper that Trump "made a colossal mistake" that has turned a safe seat into a competitive one.

The Money Gap

Talarico, a Democratic state representative, had more than $21.5 million on hand as of the end of June, according to Federal Election Commission data cited by The Hill. Paxton had less than $1.8 million.

That's roughly a 12-to-1 cash advantage for the Democrat heading into the fall stretch.

Republicans aren't sitting still. Raw Story reported that a political committee called Texas PAC has lined up roughly $117 million in advertising to prop up Paxton, and Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC has already funneled $15 million into the race, according to The Hill. The Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP's main Senate-focused outside group, has also poured money in.

The Polling

A poll by Texas Public Opinion Research found Talarico leading Paxton by five points, with double-digit support among independents. Decision Desk HQ, The Hill's polling partner, currently gives Talarico a 56% chance of winning in November, an estimate, not a prediction of the outcome.

If Talarico wins on November 3, he'd be the first Democrat to win statewide office in Texas in more than 30 years.

Tillis's Case

Tillis, who is retiring and has repeatedly broken with Trump on issues from NATO to Kristi Noem's tenure at Homeland Security, argued Cornyn would have cruised. "John Cornyn's a great member of the U.S. Senate. Paxton has his challenges," Tillis said. "We would not be spending tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in Texas if Cornyn had won."

Tillis also pushed back on the broader loyalty-test dynamic inside the party. "This party has evolved to a point to where one or two disagreements with the president... now is not a time for these loyalty oaths," he said, noting Cornyn voted with Trump 98 to 99% of the time. "Republicans that go after other Republicans for only being in the 95th percentile, I'd like for them to go find another party."

The Other Side of the Ledger

Trump's rationale for backing Paxton wasn't a mystery. He touted Paxton's record as a steadfast MAGA loyalist and blasted Cornyn on social media as "VERY disloyal," a reference to Cornyn's 2024 comment that Republicans should consider moving past Trump. From that view, party loyalty and base enthusiasm are legitimate reasons to back a challenger over an incumbent who publicly questioned the president, and a MAGA-aligned nominee may turn out voters an establishment figure like Cornyn wouldn't.

Tillis has his own history of friction with Trump and no longer answers to primary voters since he isn't running again, which is relevant context for weighing his motive. The FEC filings and public polling he's citing are independently verifiable and don't depend on his say-so.

Paxton brings real baggage into the race regardless of who endorsed him. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on corruption allegations and acquitted by the Texas Senate. A separate felony securities fraud indictment against him was dismissed in 2024 after a pretrial diversion agreement. His wife of 38 years, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in August 2024 citing adultery.

None of that guarantees a Talarico win. Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since the early 1990s, and a five-point lead in a single poll seven weeks out isn't a lock, particularly in a state where Republicans still hold a structural turnout advantage. But the FEC's cash numbers are hard data, not a poll, and they show Republicans now bankrolling a defense that wouldn't have been necessary with Cornyn on the ballot.

The open question heading into November 3 is whether $117 million in outside spending and Trump's own $15 million commitment can close a gap that didn't exist six months ago, or whether Talarico's fundraising edge and the scandal history around Paxton turn Texas into the marquee upset of the midterms.