Immigration Raids and Gas Prices Are Splitting Both Parties Ahead of the Nov. 3 Midterms

Candidates in both parties are running away from parts of their own leadership's playbook on two of the year's hottest issues ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms: immigration enforcement and the war in Iran.

Democrats Can't Decide What ICE Even Is

Democratic National Committee members approved two competing messages last month, according to the Los Angeles Times: one calling to abolish ICE outright, the other pushing to reform it. That split is playing out in real races.

In Michigan, progressive Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed said before the state's July Senate primary that fellow Democrats afraid to say "abolish ICE" are showing "cowardice," according to the Los Angeles Times. Democratic candidates in Illinois, Minnesota and New Jersey have taken similar abolition stances.

Others are in the reform camp. Randy Villegas, a political science professor challenging Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) in California's Central Valley, wants to end for-profit immigration detention and prosecute ICE agents who break the law, but stops short of abolition. Villegas, the son of Mexican immigrants whose brother is a DACA recipient, told the Los Angeles Times that Kern County was "ground zero" for ICE raids last year and accused Valadao of staying silent while claiming to be a moderate. He said Valadao "voted to triple ICE's budget," a characterization from Villegas that the Times did not independently verify with a specific figure.

Republicans Are Backing Away From "Mass Deportation"

The party that ran on border security in 2024 now has a raid-violence problem. The Los Angeles Times reports that roughly half of Americans view the administration's immigration tactics as too aggressive, and some battleground Republicans have shifted their language from "mass deportations" to deporting criminals specifically.

The clearest example is Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL), who represents a Miami district Trump won by 15 points. At her primary victory party, Salazar told supporters, "Some of the enforcement that we have seen this year is not the way, is not what we need to do with immigration. I have departed from my party on this," according to the 19th News.

Salazar has since introduced an immigration reform bill with Democratic Rep. Veronica Escobar, carried it to Rome for a papal blessing, and released a TV ad in English and Spanish telling Trump directly: "Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far," the 19th reported. Miami-Dade voter Lourdes Pestano, a 62-year-old Cuban immigrant, told the outlet she plans to back Salazar and welcomed the criticism, saying "there's no need for cruelty."

Republicans still have a case to make on enforcement. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott secured a $7.5 billion Department of Homeland Security grant this month to reimburse the state for border security spending under the Biden administration, according to Breitbart, and the party argues aggressive enforcement is what actually secured the border after years of record crossings. That's a case a lot of voters still buy, which is exactly why the fight isn't over whether to enforce the border but over how the raids themselves are conducted.

Not every flashpoint has produced the reaction Democrats might expect. After ICE shot a 28-year-old Venezuelan national during an operation in San Antonio on Sept. 20, a protest organized by the Party for Socialism and Liberation drew what Breitbart described as a sparse crowd outside City Hall. Separately, DHS denied a weekend rumor that agents had been told to stop arresting non-violent migrants, according to Breitbart, though the rumor's origin remains unclear.

Gas Prices Put Three GOP Senate Candidates at Odds With Trump

A parallel break is happening over Iran. Iowa's Ashley Hinson, Michigan's Mike Rogers and Ohio Sen. Jon Husted have all called in recent weeks for winding down the roughly seven-month military conflict with Iran, citing gas prices that hit a $4.47 national average and $4.84 in Michigan, according to AAA figures cited by the Daily Wire.

Rogers proposed a temporary embargo on U.S. diesel exports "until this war is over." Hinson called for suspending the gas tax, pausing diesel exports, expanding E15 availability and reviving the biodiesel tax credit. Husted told Politico simply that "the war needs to come to an end as quickly as possible so that we can lower gas prices."

The Daily Wire notes an inconsistency: Hinson voted against War Powers Resolutions to end U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict in March, April, May and July, and again in September, when a version passed the House 220-204. Calling for the war's end now, after repeatedly voting to keep it going, is a position her opponents are likely to highlight.

Trump, for his part, told the United Nations General Assembly he may "annihilate" Iran absent a peace deal. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian used his own U.N. address to defend Tehran's nuclear program as a matter of energy, agriculture and medicine, insisting "we will not bow our head." Separately, Breitbart reported Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying Tehran is "losing so badly," while indicating he remains open to an agreement on his own terms.

The Los Angeles Times notes most voters rank cost of living above immigration as their top concern, which is exactly why Republicans in swing states are pivoting to gas prices and Democrats keep circling back to "secure the border" even while fighting over ICE's future. Neither party has landed on a message that satisfies its base without costing it swing voters, and with the Nov. 3 midterms approaching, neither side appears close to resolving it before ballots are cast.