Thune Says GOP 'Could Lose' Senate as SAVE Act Sits Stalled Through a Five-Week Recess

Since Senate Majority Leader John Thune adjourned the chamber for a five-week recess, the SAVE America Act has sat without the votes to pass, and new polling and public statements from Thune himself show Republicans increasingly worried about losing the Senate majority outright.

Thune told South Dakota's KELO-TV he "worries" about Republicans keeping the Senate. "I'm a realist, and I just think you, I don't ever try and sugarcoat things," he said, calling the environment "competitive." House Speaker Mike Johnson took a different approach, telling reporters, "Republicans are going to defy history in 63 days, and we're going to hold this House majority," according to the Daily Mail.

Republicans hold the Senate 53-47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats. According to the Daily Wire's polling roundup, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by roughly six and a half points, and Republican Senate candidates are trailing in several races Trump carried by double digits in 2024: Roy Cooper up eight over Michael Whatley in North Carolina, James Talarico up two over Ken Paxton in Texas, Sherrod Brown up three over Jon Husted in Ohio, Troy Jackson up two over Susan Collins in Maine, and Mary Peltola up two over Dan Sullivan in Alaska.

The SAVE Act standoff

The SAVE America Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration and impose tighter rules on mail ballots and voter roll maintenance, has passed the House three separate times, according to the Daily Signal. In February the House attached SAVE language to an existing Senate-passed bill specifically to dodge a filibuster, and House Speaker Johnson has since stapled SAVE provisions to the National Defense Authorization Act and a reconciliation package carrying $10 billion for implementation funding, moves aimed at forcing a simple-majority path around Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough.

Senate Democrats have blocked it in prior votes. Fox News reported that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer once said Democrats support voter ID in principle, but every Senate Democrat then voted against the GOP's bill anyway.

Democrats and voting-rights advocates have long argued that documentary proof-of-citizenship mandates and stricter mail-ballot deadlines create real obstacles for eligible voters who lack ready access to birth certificates or passports, particularly married women who changed their names, elderly voters, and rural residents far from DMV offices. Republicans counter that citizenship is already a federal voting requirement and the bill simply verifies it. No source in this reporting shows evidence of actual noncitizen voting at scale being blocked or enabled by current law either way, and Congress has not resolved that empirical dispute.

Trump has pushed Thune to eliminate the filibuster or remove the parliamentarian to force SAVE through. Thune has resisted, telling Fox News Digital the votes simply aren't there. Cleta Mitchell of the Conservative Partnership Institute told the Daily Signal that "Thune is an empty suit when it comes to figuring out how to navigate the Senate," while also acknowledging "Democrats bear a fair share of the blame."

Texas money fight

Speaking with Fox News's Martha MacCallum, Thune said Republicans will "need" Trump's help funding Paxton's Texas race. According to the Washington Examiner, Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC had more than $400 million in cash on hand at the end of July but had not yet cut a check for Paxton, whose primary win over Sen. John Cornyn was driven by Trump's endorsement. A Republican donor told Politico the message to Trump is blunt: "You broke it, now you own it." Cornyn, sitting on $14.2 million in leftover campaign funds, has not put money behind Paxton either.

Paxton carries his own baggage into the general election, including a dismissed securities fraud charge and an impeachment he was later acquitted of. His Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico, has drawn scrutiny too. CNN unearthed a 2020 video in which Talarico called capitalism "oppressive" and linked it to climate change and "white supremacy," remarks Paxton-aligned PAC Lone Star Liberty has already turned into attack ads.

The Daily Mail/JL Partners poll adds another wrinkle: more than four in ten 2024 Trump voters say he isn't doing enough on inflation and the cost of living, and 49% of all voters surveyed said Trump was wrong to launch military action against Iran. Thune has pointed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and stabilizing fuel prices as economic priorities that could shape how rural and swing-state voters judge Republicans, according to AgroLatam's account of his August 14 remarks in Sioux Falls.

The Senate returns September 14.