Talarico Beats Paxton in Texas as Networks Project Democrats Take the Senate

James Talarico, a 37-year-old Democratic state representative and Presbyterian seminarian, defeated Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Networks called the race between roughly 10 and 11 p.m. Eastern. It is the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen won in 1988, and the first Democratic statewide win of any kind since 1994.

Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024. He endorsed Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff, which Paxton won by nearly 28 points.

The Texas result

Texas Democrats also appear to have won the governor's mansion. Gina Hinojosa, a state representative from Austin, defeated Gov. Greg Abbott, who conceded around 10 p.m. Abbott had more than $100 million in cash on hand at the start of the year and was denied a record fourth term. Hinojosa will be the state's first Latina governor.

Vote shares were still moving when the calls came in. Breitbart cited nearly 60 percent for Talarico with about 64 percent counted. Newsweek put his share at 55 percent. The final margin has not been certified.

Turnout was heavy. TIME reported more than 7.7 million votes cast before Election Day. Fortune reported early voting reached 40.5 percent of registered voters, the highest midterm early-turnout rate on record in modern Texas.

The money

It was the most expensive Senate race in history, with more than half a billion dollars spent. Elon Musk was the biggest single backer of Paxton's side. Tallies differ: the BBC counted $158 million to a pro-Paxton super PAC, while a New York Times analysis cited by Fortune put his total above $200 million. TIME counted $224 million.

Much of Musk's money went through the Senate Leadership Fund, which then moved nearly identical sums into a new entity called Texas PAC, the Texas Tribune reported. Trump's own super PAC, MAGA Inc., added $10 million.

Talarico outraised Paxton on the campaign side. Fortune reported he had raised $72 million to Paxton's $16.8 million by early September. Breitbart counted $145 million to $22 million in individual donations. Talarico also benefited from outside help, including $10 million from billionaire Reid Hoffman to a supporting super PAC, a point Reason's J.D. Tuccille raised against a candidate who ran against billionaires.

Paxton's baggage

Cornyn had warned that a Paxton nomination could cost Republicans $150 million to $200 million to hold the seat. After losing the runoff he called Paxton "lazy." On election night he congratulated Talarico on X and offered help with the transition.

Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on bribery and abuse-of-office allegations and acquitted by the Texas Senate. A federal corruption investigation ended without charges. In 2024 he agreed to pay $300,000 in restitution to end securities fraud charges dating to 2015.

During the campaign, reporting emerged that Paxton spent New Year's Eve 2024 at a Dubai party with two U.S. fugitives and a woman who was not his wife. His campaign decried the reporting without denying it and said he had been politically persecuted. Paxton also never agreed to debate Talarico, the first Texas Senate race without a major-party debate since 2000, Fortune noted.

In his concession, Paxton said he would pray for Talarico. "We've had a difficult night tonight across the country, but it's not over," he said.

The case against Talarico

Paxton and Trump argued Talarico was too far left for Texas. Trump called him "Radical Left Dumocrat" and "Talafreako," a nickname the Talarico campaign turned into merchandise.

Reason's Tuccille pointed to Talarico's 2020 remarks to Sierra Club activists, when he described free-market capitalism as an "oppressive system" linked to "white supremacy." Tuccille wrote that Talarico has since disavowed some of that and now calls himself a "proud capitalist," and that a better explanation than wanting statewide office would have been appropriate. Talarico has said some of his earlier comments "missed the mark."

Not just Texas

Texas was one piece of a broader Democratic sweep. Networks called flips in Ohio, where Sherrod Brown beat Sen. Jon Husted for the seat Vance vacated; North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper beat Michael Whatley; Iowa, where Josh Turek beat Rep. Ashley Hinson for the open seat of retiring Sen. Joni Ernst; and South Carolina, where Annie Andrews won. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton defeated Sen. Roger Marshall, which the Daily Wire described as the first Democratic Senate win there since 1932.

Jon Ossoff won in Georgia over Rep. Mike Collins, and Rep. Chris Pappas won in New Hampshire. ABC News projects Democrats will control both the Senate and the House. PBS noted Democrats needed to gain four Senate seats for a majority.

The themes were consistent across states: cost of living, Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, tariffs and diesel prices tied to the war in Iran. NPR reported that Trump's falling approval pulled Iowa from the Republican column to a toss-up by summer.

What comes next

The final Senate margin will depend on remaining counts and certification. Several winners have kept their distance from Schumer. Hamilton said he would not back Schumer returning to the Democratic leadership post, and Talarico presented himself as someone who answers to Texans rather than to Schumer's interests, according to Fox News.

Al Jazeera noted Democrats are expected to examine Musk's role leading the Department of Government Efficiency if they take control of Congress. Talarico will replace Cornyn and become the Senate's youngest member.