Cooper Flips North Carolina Senate Seat for Democrats; Moody and Pappas Hold, CBS News Projects

Since polls began closing this evening, Tuesday, Nov. 3, the first projected results have started to sketch the shape of the night. Several of the early calls are projections, not final counts, and the biggest questions are still open.

Senate: One Flip, Two Holds

CBS News projects Democrat Roy Cooper defeated Republican Michael Whatley in North Carolina. It is the first Senate seat to change parties tonight.

Cooper, 69, is a two-term governor and the longest-serving attorney general in the state's history. Whatley, 57, is the former RNC chairman. He had never run for office and entered the race with President Trump's encouragement. The seat opened when GOP Sen. Thom Tillis chose not to seek reelection. North Carolina has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008, and Trump carried the state by three points in 2024.

In Florida, CBS News projects GOP Sen. Ashley Moody, 51, defeated Democrat Angie Nixon. Moody was appointed last year to the seat Marco Rubio vacated when he became Secretary of State. Nixon, 42, is a democratic socialist who upset a more moderate opponent in the primary.

In New Hampshire, CBS News projects Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas beat former Republican Sen. John Sununu, holding the seat Jeanne Shaheen is leaving. The AP reports Democratic Sen. Mark Warner was easily reelected in Virginia.

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Cooper's win is one of them, and most of the other competitive races are in historically red states.

Florida's Redrawn Map

Florida Republicans redrew House lines to squeeze Democrats. So far it has not worked in the districts CBS News has called.

Rep. Kathy Castor won in the 14th District, and Rep. Jared Moskowitz won in the 25th. Moskowitz beat a democratic socialist in his primary. Republican challenger Scott Singer had said in a weekend interview that a survey showed him up seven points and that Moskowitz votes with the "Squad" 88% of the time. CBS News projects Moskowitz won anyway.

In the 22nd, which was also redrawn to favor the GOP, Democrat Pia Dandiya is projected to win. The AP reports Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz won a new seat after switching districts in response to the Republican redistricting.

Texas: Early Returns Only

Texas is the state to watch for whether mid-decade redistricting paid off. The Texas Tribune's reporters say no results had come in from the Rio Grande Valley, where Republicans hoped to win three congressional seats and where Democrats, especially Senate candidate James Talarico, campaigned heavily.

The early numbers favor Democrats, but early votes are not the full count. Tribune reporters flagged Democrats leading every statewide race by double digits in Tarrant County, a bellwether. Talarico had 40% of the early vote in Potter County in the Panhandle. Beto O'Rourke got 30% there in 2018. In Nueces County, Republican Reps. Michael Cloud and Mayra Flores were running behind in early votes.

Rep. Jasmine Crockett said on CBS News that Republicans will not pick up the five seats they hoped to gain from redistricting. That is a Democrat's prediction, not a result.

What Republicans Are Still Counting On

Republicans went into the night bracing to lose the House, where they hold 218 seats to 214 and Democrats need a net gain of three or four depending on the count. They have pinned their hopes on the Senate and on a money advantage. The party spent tens of millions of dollars in the closing weeks defending states and districts Trump won by wide margins two years ago.

Trump told voters at a Salina, Kansas rally Sunday, "I really want you to pretend I'm on the ballot." On Fox News today he said "inflation is solved" and predicted, "I think the results are going to be better than you think." The Commerce Department reported last week that consumer prices rose 3.6% in September from a year earlier.

The Action Network's Tyler James Webber, whose model draws on prediction markets, told The Epoch Times that polls underestimated Republican turnout in six of the past seven midterms. His model still showed an 86% chance Democrats take the House and a 66% chance the Senate flips. Trump's approval is about 37% and disapproval about 60% in recent polling, according to the Epoch Times' summary of recent surveys.

Turnout and Stakes

The AP counted more than 59 million ballots cast before Election Day, ahead of 2022's early vote. In the AP Voter Poll, about three-quarters of voters described themselves as "angry" or "dissatisfied" with the country's direction. Voters cited high prices, the war with Iran and concerns about government corruption.

Stifel's Washington Policy Strategy Group predicted a Democratic House and a Senate too close to call. It said any market reaction could reverse because gridlock is the likely outcome either way. A Democratic House would end single-party budget reconciliation bills. It would also give Democrats leverage over government funding and the looming debt ceiling increase, and subpoena power for investigations of the White House.

NASA astronaut Anil Menon, who votes in Harris County, Texas, said he cast his ballot from the International Space Station. Two other U.S. astronauts aboard also voted.

What Comes Next

Control of the Senate may not be settled tonight. If the majority comes down to Alaska, the state's count could take days or weeks. The Trump administration has already sued in Alaska and California over election administration, and its Justice Department has threatened to prosecute local election officials. Next up are the Rio Grande Valley returns in Texas and the remaining Senate toss-ups, including Ohio and Michigan.