What's New: Election Day Arrived and the Money Didn't Save Cornyn

Texans voted Tuesday, May 26, in the Republican Senate runoff between four-term Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. This is the culmination of a race that changed dramatically just one week earlier when President Trump endorsed Paxton — a gut-punch to Cornyn that no amount of ad spending could easily absorb.

Most Texas polls closed at 8 p.m. ET, with the full state closing at 9 p.m. ET, according to NBC News.

The Spending Gap That Didn't Matter

Cornyn's campaign and allied groups have spent roughly $90 million in advertising since last year, according to PBS News — the vast majority of it attacking Paxton.

Since the March 3 primary alone, pro-Cornyn groups outspent Paxton's side $16.5 million to $5.9 million, according to PBS News.

It wasn't enough. Once Trump moved, the spending advantage evaporated.

Trump Dropped the Hammer One Week Out

Trump endorsed Paxton just seven days before the runoff, describing him as a "True MAGA warrior" and calling out Cornyn for opposing the elimination of the Senate filibuster. According to NBC News, Trump specifically tied the endorsement to Paxton's support for the SAVE America Act — legislation that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote and a photo ID to cast a ballot.

Paxton's campaign and Lone Star Liberty, a pro-Paxton super PAC, launched ads touting the endorsement within 24 hours of Trump's announcement, according to NBC News.

Cornyn's response on Election Day morning was telling: "I know who gets to choose our senators, and it's the people of Texas," per PBS News. He also spent Election Day arguing he's been a consistent Trump "ally" — a last-minute repositioning that reflected the damage the endorsement had done.

The Historical Stakes

If Paxton wins, Cornyn becomes the first Republican senator in Texas history to seek his party's nomination and lose, according to PBS News. Four terms. Senate Majority Leader John Thune personally lobbied Trump to back Cornyn. It didn't work.

This follows Trump successfully backing challengers to incumbent Republicans in Louisiana, Kentucky, and Indiana earlier this month, according to PBS News.

Paxton's Baggage Is Real — But Voters Know It Already

Mainstream outlets are leading with Paxton's controversies, and those controversies are real. He was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House on bribery and corruption charges in 2023, though the state Senate acquitted him. His wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce citing "biblical grounds," according to NBC News.

On Election Day itself, Angela Paxton posted endorsements for various state races — but pointedly stayed neutral in the Senate race, according to The Hill. She didn't endorse her estranged husband. She didn't endorse Cornyn either.

Texas Republican primary voters already knew all of this in March when Paxton pulled 41% of the vote to Cornyn's 42% in a three-way race. The impeachment, the divorce, the corruption allegations — none of it knocked Paxton out of contention. Primary voters had already factored these issues into their decision-making.

The Democratic Side — Which Everyone Is Ignoring

The GOP primary is consuming all the oxygen, but Texas also had Democratic House runoffs Tuesday.

Former Rep. Colin Allred faced state Rep. Julie Johnson in the 33rd Congressional District Democratic primary, according to The Hill. In Houston's 18th District, Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee clashed in a Democratic primary fight over big money in politics, per the Texas Tribune. Two Democratic incumbents were at risk of losing their own primaries.

The eventual Republican Senate nominee — Paxton or Cornyn — faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in November.

The Attorney General Race: Also Consequential

Because Paxton is running for Senate, the Texas AG seat is also up for grabs in a separate runoff. Retiring Rep. Chip Roy faced state Sen. Mayes Middleton on the Republican side, according to The Hill. Middleton reportedly transformed from GOP megadonor to front-runner, per the Texas Tribune. Democrats Joe Jaworski and others also competed for their party's AG nomination.

This race gets almost zero national coverage. Texas AG shapes everything from border enforcement to legal challenges against federal overreach, making it consequential for state policy.

What This Means for Regular People

If Paxton wins, Trump just proved he can kneecap a four-term senator with a late endorsement despite a $90 million opposition campaign. Every Republican senator who isn't fully MAGA now has to decide: comply or risk the same.

If Cornyn somehow survives, it's the first real data point that Trump's primary endorsements have a ceiling.

Either way, Texas Republicans are telling Washington something loud and clear.