What Actually Happened

On May 27, 2026, the Democratic National Committee posted a promotional photo of Texas Senate candidate James Talarico on X, captioned "It's time to take back Texas."

White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller responded by falsely claiming: "The Democrats made history in Texas by nominating their first transgender senate candidate."

Talarico is a cisgender man. Miller's claim was factually wrong.

The DNC's official response from their verified account: "shut up you ugly f—."

The Numbers Republicans Don't Want to Talk About

Miller's post wasn't random trolling. It was a distraction — and the polling data explains why.

According to Raw Story, Talarico leads Paxton by as much as 8 points in current polling. Paxton's net favorability sits 9 points underwater. Talarico's net favorability sits at +10.

The fundraising gap is even more alarming for Republicans. Talarico pulled in $27 million in the first three months of 2026, according to Raw Story. Paxton raised $2.2 million during the same period. That's not a gap — that's a crater.

Even Karl Rove, the architect of two Bush presidential victories, has reportedly warned that Democrats have a real shot with Paxton as the GOP nominee, according to Raw Story.

Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) told MSNBC's Ana Cabrera that Democrats should "go all in" behind Talarico, calling him "a terrific candidate" who would mobilize independents increasingly alienated by Trump, according to Breitbart. Van Hollen predicted outright that Talarico wins.

The GOP Strategy: Nickname Him to Death

Faced with a money deficit and an underwater nominee, Republicans have leaned hard into mockery and character attacks.

At his victory rally, Paxton debuted a string of nicknames for Talarico — "Tofu Talarico," "Six-gender James," and "Tala-freak-o" — according to Raw Story. The attacks centered on a resurfaced 2021 legislative statement in which Talarico argued modern science recognizes more than two biological sexes.

The NRSC launched what Raw Story describes as a deepfake attack ad using an AI-generated version of Talarico reading his own social media posts, branding him "the most radical, woke Democrat Texas voters have ever seen."

Trump personally compared Talarico to a "freckle-faced cartoon character" and promised to campaign for Paxton, according to Fox News.

Political journalist David Weigel noted, according to Raw Story, that Republican messaging has consistently sought to cast Talarico as effeminate or queer — what was subtext has become explicit text.

Talarico Is Running From His Record

Conservative media has zeroed in on aspects of Talarico's record he's now distancing himself from.

According to Fox News, Talarico admitted on camera that "there are some statements that I have made that I certainly regret" and that some past comments "missed the mark."

The Daily Wire has published multiple pieces focused on Talarico's past statements on gender, meat consumption, and progressive theology — including his 2021 claim that God is "non-binary," citing Galatians 3:28.

Talarico's response to all of it, per Fox News: Paxton is "intentionally clipping my cringey comments to distract from his career of corruption."

Both points have merit.

What Both Sides Are Getting Wrong

Right-leaning outlets — Fox News, Daily Wire, Twitchy — are covering the DNC's profane response as evidence of Democratic collapse and hypocrisy. Twitchy pointed out that the DNC's obscene response to Miller's "transgender" label implied being called transgender IS an insult — a fair catch that left-leaning media mostly ignored.

Left-leaning coverage from Raw Story and The Advocate framed Miller's false post as coordinated GOP anti-trans bigotry — which is accurate — but largely glossed over the fact that the DNC's official response was a vulgar personal attack from an official party account. Such a response is unusual in political discourse and warrants scrutiny regardless of what Miller said.

The DNC did not correct the record. They did not explain Talarico's actual positions. They name-called. That's the story neither side is fully telling.

The Real Race

Texas hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. That's 38 years.

But a $27 million to $2.2 million fundraising gap is not sustainable for Paxton. An 8-point polling deficit is not a rounding error. And a nominee with a 9-point net negative favorability in a race he's supposed to win easily is a five-alarm fire.

Republicans chose Paxton knowing his baggage — impeachment, federal indictment, corruption allegations. They bet Trump's backing would carry it. Whether that bet pays off in November will determine the outcome.

Name-calling on X settles nothing. The $27 million will.