Reuters: QatarEnergy in advanced talks to buy 3 million tons a year of LNG from Venture Global's unfinished CP2 plant

Venture Global is working two stories at once, and both run on the same gas.

Late Thursday, Oct. 22, Reuters reported that QatarEnergy is in advanced talks with Venture Global on a long-term supply deal for at least 3 million tons of LNG a year. The volumes would come from CP2, the company's Louisiana export plant, which is still under construction. No deal has been signed or announced by either company.

VG shares rose more than 6% on Friday, Oct. 23, and have roughly doubled this year. They remain about 45% below the $25 IPO price.

Qatar goes from seller to buyer

The report arrived hours after QatarEnergy signed a separate agreement with Cheniere for up to 4 million tons a year through 2054.

The reversal traces to March, when Iranian missiles hit Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG complex. The strikes damaged two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains, taking out 12.8 million tons a year of capacity, about 17% of the total.

QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi has said repairs will take three to five years and that lost revenue runs roughly $20 billion a year.

Kpler data put Qatar's September LNG exports at 1.6 million tons, less than a quarter of the prewar average. Kpler expects October to fall to 0.6 million tons. QatarEnergy has kept renewing its monthly force majeure notices, most recently through November.

Qatar still has customers to supply. It has been buying spot cargoes, many of them from Venture Global, and is now trying to lock in long-term volumes instead.

The $17.2 billion power order

On Oct. 15, Venture Global announced frame agreements with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes Energy Services for up to 16 new power island units of 720 megawatts each. A separate frame agreement with GE Grid Solutions covers transformers and gas-insulated switchgear.

The units are combined-cycle gas plants. Together they could add roughly 11.5 gigawatts of generation.

The company says the equipment could support up to 10 gigawatts of data center compute at sites it owns or controls, built in stages, with the full amount targeted by the end of 2034. An 8-K filed with the announcement indicates that exercising every contemplated purchase could total about $17.2 billion, including reservation fees that are subject to adjustment.

The Wall Street Journal broke the story and reported that first power for data centers could be available around late 2028 or early 2029. CEO Mike Sabel told the paper the work is "very copy-paste" of what the company has done for years.

Venture Global already runs about 4.5 gigawatts across six gas-fired power islands that supply its LNG terminals independent of the public grid. Sabel has described the plan as a "vertically integrated AI utility." The company says the first power-island purchase order is expected by the end of 2026 and that later orders will track customer commitments.

Two uses for the same turbines

The Business Model Analyst newsletter argues that the announcement is less a customer win than an option. In its reading of the filings, Venture Global reserved scarce equipment at a pre-agreed price and kept the right to put the same plants behind either liquefaction trains or server halls.

The company's own framing is consistent with that. It says any third-party data center activity would be separate from, and complementary to, its LNG operations and existing sales commitments. It also says the plan supports continued LNG growth.

The announcement does not name a data center customer. Whether one signs is the open commercial question.

The AI spending question

The equipment makers on the other end are under market pressure. Benzinga reported that GE Vernova fell to about $823 this week, its lowest since March 31, in a sell-off of industrial names tied to the AI buildout. Investors, it said, are questioning how durable AI-related capital spending will be. Caterpillar and Vertiv also came under pressure.

GE Vernova rebounded in Friday premarket trading. The stock is still up about 39% over 12 months.

The company reports third-quarter results on Oct. 28. Analysts expect EPS of $3.97, up from $1.64 a year earlier, on revenue of $11.99 billion versus $9.97 billion. Bank of America expects orders up 44% to $21 billion, with Wind orders down 18% to $1.5 billion.

What Venture Global's numbers show

The LNG business is carrying the story. In the second quarter, which ended June 30, Venture Global posted revenue of $4.6 billion, up 48%. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $1.3 billion, up 266%.

Management raised full-year 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.7 billion to $9.1 billion. It said 91% of 2026 cargoes are contracted.

CP2 is also the plant the Qatar talks center on, so the project is tied to both pieces of news.

What comes next

Three dates will test the story. GE Vernova reports Oct. 28. Venture Global is scheduled to report third-quarter results around Nov. 10. The first power-island purchase order is due by the end of 2026.

The Qatar talks remain unconfirmed by either party. The company has said it will file initial permit applications promptly.