Rep. Al Green Files New Trump Impeachment Resolution Over ICE Deaths, Needs Seven GOP Votes He Does Not Have

Since Democrats told reporters this week that healthcare, not impeachment, would top their legislative agenda if they win the House, one member has moved ahead on his own. Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, filed H.Res.1486 on Monday, August 24, formally accusing President Trump of high crimes and misdemeanors, according to a statement from Green's congressional office.

The resolution centers on immigration enforcement. Green's office says the articles accuse Trump of allowing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection to "operate without accountability, assault civilians, and cover up killings," naming four people: Renée Good, Alex Pretti, Lorenzo Salgado Araujo and Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero. These are allegations contained in Green's own filing. No independent investigation, indictment, or federal finding establishing a cover-up has been announced.

Green sent Trump a letter alongside the filing, invoking the president's oath of office under Article II, Section 1, Clause 8 of the Constitution. "This is not about Democrats versus Republicans, conservatives versus liberals, or the Left versus the Right," Green wrote, according to the Daily Signal. "It's about how you attempt to bully judges and disrespect the separation of powers."

The math doesn't work, and Green knows it

House Republicans currently hold a two-seat majority. To force a floor vote and advance impeachment, Green would need at least seven Republicans to break ranks, according to the Daily Signal. If the House somehow impeached Trump, conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds vote, meaning 22 Republican senators would have to vote against their own party's president.

Green isn't pretending otherwise. In his letter he anticipated the obvious rebuttal: "I am well aware of the fact that you will be defended by persons who will say, 'The House won't impeach, and if it did, the Senate won't convict,'" he wrote, according to the Daily Signal. His response is that a failed impeachment vote still puts lawmakers on record. "There are some of us watching and willing to act," he wrote.

Green's move uses a privileged resolution to force colleagues into a public yes-or-no vote on Trump's immigration enforcement, betting that some Republicans in swing districts won't want that vote on the books heading into November. He isn't claiming a conviction is likely.

Jeffries is stuck in the middle

The filing lands as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries tries to avoid exactly this kind of fight. Jeffries told CNN's Wolf Blitzer this week a preview of Democratic priorities if the party retakes the House, according to Axios, and has stuck to a careful line on impeachment on the campaign trail rather than promising one.

Axios reports Jeffries is caught between a wing of his caucus eager to confront Trump aggressively and members who think a third impeachment attempt, after two failed ones during Trump's first term, would be a waste of a majority. That tension has sharpened after backlash over a closed-door meeting between Jeffries and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, which The Hill also flagged as a sign of how Washington is bracing for a Democratic House.

The forecasting numbers explain why that majority looks likely. Nate Silver's model puts the odds of Democratic control at 86 percent, with the most probable outcome a 15-seat majority, according to The Hill. Decision Desk HQ is more conservative at 66 percent, centered on a roughly 12-seat majority. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both show House Republicans netting only three or four sure pickups from their mid-decade redistricting push, nowhere near enough to offset losses elsewhere.

If Democrats do win control in January, Green has already signaled he intends to keep pushing. Whether Jeffries lets a floor vote happen, or manages to bottle it up the way current GOP leadership almost certainly will with H.Res.1486 this fall, remains the open question hanging over the next Congress.