Primoris Services Cuts 2026 Earnings Forecast in Half, COO Departs, Shares Drop Over 37%

What Happened

Primoris Services Corporation (PRIM) disclosed Monday evening, after the closing bell, that its 2026 renewables business is a wreck. The company guided full-year renewables revenue to approximately $2.1 billion, down from $3 billion in 2025, a decline of roughly 30%, according to Stocktwits.

The headline number is brutal. Adjusted EPS is now expected at $2.05 to $2.60, versus a prior range of $4.80 to $5.00. The Bloomberg consensus estimate had been $4.74. Adjusted EBITDA guidance dropped from $480 million to $500 million down to $275 million to $325 million, per ZeroHedge.

It is roughly a halving of expected earnings in a single update.

The COO Exit

Chief Operating Officer Jeremy Kinch has departed. CEO Koti Vadlamudi addressed investors in the Monday release but, according to Stocktwits, attempted to "mask" the abrupt exit while pointing to a $2 billion backlog in the energy business as a sign of demand strength.

The backlog figure is real. Wolfe Research analyst Steve Fleishman acknowledged it, writing that the $2 billion in bookings "highlight demand remains as strong as ever for E&Cs." Fleishman's note also called the update "painful" and flagged that "credibility concerns remain." He noted the damage is still contained to six specific solar projects.

That's the bull case. Six projects, not a systemic collapse across the entire portfolio.

The Bear Case Has More Weight Right Now

KeyBanc Capital Markets cut its rating on PRIM to "Sector Weight" from "Overweight," removing its price target entirely, according to Stocktwits. The firm, as reported by TheFly, described this as Primoris's fourth negative update in a row and said it has become "tough to defend" the company.

KeyBanc said it wants a "clear picture" of the underlying renewables business and visible "steps to right the ship" before recommending shares again. That's a downgrade with a question mark where the timeline should be.

In premarket trading, PRIM shares were down more than 37% and on track to open at a more-than-one-year low, per Stocktwits. That follows a 50% single-day drop roughly a month ago on disappointing results and a prior guidance cut. As of Monday's close, the stock was already down 13% year-to-date, according to ZeroHedge.

Wells Fargo analyst Jerry Revich also weighed in, expressing concern over further losses on four of the company's projects and continuing to expect risk of higher project losses in the second half of the year, per TheFly. The firm cut its price target to $85 from $118.

The Policy Context

ZeroHedge frames the renewables collapse partly as a Trump administration policy story, noting the administration has been pulling back support for solar and wind in favor of fossil-fuel power generation. That framing has some factual grounding: federal policy shifts have introduced real uncertainty into the renewables construction pipeline.

But attributing Primoris's specific execution failures to federal policy alone doesn't hold up. The company itself cited "higher operating costs" and project completion delays on certain projects. Those are operational problems. Operational failure and adverse policy can both be true at once.

The Strongest Counterargument

A fair reading of Fleishman's note makes the case that this is a contained problem, not a structural one. If the damage is isolated to six projects, and the $2 billion bookings figure signals that customers still want Primoris's work, then the stock's selloff may be pricing in a permanent impairment that isn't there. Infrastructure buildout for utilities, data centers, and pipelines is not slowing down. Primoris operates in segments that have real long-term tailwinds.

Guggenheim analyst Joseph Osha reiterated a Buy rating, writing that management "has made a series of significant mistakes" but that "those mistakes do not reduce the underlying value of PRIM's businesses, especially those outside of the troubled renewable segment," maintaining a price target of $162.

That argument deserves to be heard. But four consecutive negative updates, a halved earnings outlook, and a COO walking out the door are not consistent with a company that has its operational house in order. Investors get one or two bad quarters before the credibility problem becomes the story. Primoris is past that point.

What Comes Next

KeyBanc's stance sets up a concrete test: Primoris needs to deliver a credible operational turnaround plan and demonstrate stability in the renewables segment before analysts re-engage. Until management explains specifically how the problem solar projects get resolved, the unresolved question driving the stock is whether the fourth negative update is actually the last one.