Polls Put Trump's Approval Between 30% and 36% Five Days Before the Midterms

Since Pew Research Center put President Trump's approval at 30% in early October, the lowest of his second term, every major national poll released has shown him between 30% and 36%. Five days before the Nov. 3 midterms, the numbers are consistent across pollsters, including Fox News.

The differences come from who is being asked. Adults, registered voters and likely voters produce slightly different results. The direction does not change.

The approval numbers

Reuters/Ipsos, in a poll published Monday, Oct. 19, found 31% approval, the lowest of either Trump term in that survey. Two weeks earlier it was 32%.

CNN/SSRS surveyed 1,701 adults from Oct. 15 to 18 and found 32% approval, one point below its previous low. The New York Times/Siena poll, released Wednesday, Oct. 21, found 36% approval among likely voters and 34% among registered voters, with 60% of registered voters disapproving.

The Fox News poll has Trump at 36% overall, the lowest in that survey for either term. It had held at 39% since May. Among Republicans, approval is 76%, down 16 points from March 2025.

CNN found a similar slide inside the party: 74% of Republicans approve, down from 88% in February 2025.

Time reports that the last time a president's approval was at a comparable low this close to the midterms was Harry Truman in 1946, and the Times analysis of its poll puts Truman at 33% then.

Cost of living is the common thread

In the Fox poll, six in 10 voters name the cost of living as their top economic worry. Government spending comes next at 15%, then tariffs at 6%. Trump's approval on inflation is 22%, a new low in that survey. Disapproval is 77% on inflation, 70% on the economy and 69% on tariffs.

CNN found 27% approve of his handling of the economy and 23% on inflation. Two-thirds said his policies had made conditions worse. The AP-NORC Center found only 17% approve of his handling of the cost of living. It also found 28% support for his handling of the war in Iran.

Border security is the one issue near even. Fox found 50% approve and 50% disapprove. On immigration more broadly, 56% disapprove.

Peter Enns, a Cornell professor and co-founder of the survey firm Verasight, tied the Iran war to prices. "The public understands that this was Trump's decision, and they understand this connects to extremely high gas prices," he said.

The Fox poll shows how low the national mood is. Seventy-four percent rate the economy negatively. Just 18% say their family is better off than two years ago.

The ballot picture

On the generic House ballot, Democrats lead in every poll. Fox has it 54% to 45% among voters, and 52% to 46% among those certain to vote. The Times/Siena poll has Democrats up 52% to 41% among likely voters. CNN has them up 49% to 39% among registered voters. Reuters/Ipsos found 47% to 35%.

The final PBS News/NPR/Marist poll shows a narrower gap: 52% to 44% among likely voters, 10 points among registered voters. Marist's Lee Miringoff said Democrats are "getting more Republicans than Republicans are getting Democrats," and that with independents breaking for Democrats by 13 points, the party "should have a good night."

In October 2018, Marist had Democrats up 9 among likely voters. They picked up 40 House seats.

Seven in 10 Fox respondents say they will vote to send a message to Trump. Nearly twice as many want to express opposition (47%) as support (25%).

What the White House says

The White House has defended Trump's political standing. Spokesman Davis Ingle has called Trump the GOP's "best messenger" and an "unmatched motivator," and credits the administration with economic and policy achievements.

There are real limits on what national polls show. A generic ballot measures the overall climate, not individual districts or states. The Marist survey found the race has barely moved in a month, and its 10-point registered-voter lead is within the margin of error of last month's 12.

Early votes and Election Day

More than 30 million ballots have already been cast, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. That includes 15.1 million by mail and 15.5 million in person. About one in five Marist respondents say they have voted, and they favor Democrats 68% to 31%.

Those who have not voted are split 48% to 48%. Half of Republican likely voters plan to vote in person on Nov. 3, compared with 31% of Democrats.

Enthusiasm also favors Democrats. In Marist's poll, 71% of Democrats say they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61% of Republicans and 48% of independents.

Republicans hold the House 218-214 and the Senate 53-47. All 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats are on the ballot. Whether the Election Day vote Republicans are counting on is large enough to offset a banked early lead will be settled Tuesday.