Democrats Hold Narrow Leads in All Seven Senate Toss-Up Races Six Days Before Midterms, Most Within Margin of Error

Since Democrats widened their path to a Senate majority through October, the map has settled into a familiar shape: a handful of Trump-won states, thin Democratic leads, and a Republican money edge. Six days before the Nov. 3 midterms, here is where the races stand as of today, Oct. 28.

Republicans hold the Senate 53-47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a 51-49 majority.

The seven toss-ups

The Cook Political Report rates seven Senate races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Washington Post averages of high-quality polls show Democrats ahead in all seven. Most of those leads are within the margin of error.

Trump won six of the seven states in 2024, five of them by double digits. The Post's analysis says Democrats have a clear lead in only one Republican-held state: North Carolina. There, former Gov. Roy Cooper is favored over Republican Michael Whatley for an open seat.

The arithmetic is simple. If Republicans sweep the toss-ups, they keep 53 seats by flipping a Democratic-held seat in Michigan to offset the North Carolina loss. If Democrats sweep them and win the races where they are favored, the Post reports they would have their largest Senate majority since the Obama administration.

Texas, Michigan, Maine and Ohio

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by roughly 1.5 to 3 points depending on the poll. Some surveys show a dead heat or a slim Paxton edge. Trump won the state by 14 points in 2024.

Trump endorsed Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. According to the Post, Elon Musk gave $158 million in September to a political committee supporting Republicans, which then moved the money to a group backing Paxton. The Post puts the Republican spending advantage in Texas at about $159.1 million. Early voting is underway, and Trump is holding rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock this week.

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by less than two points for the seat Sen. Gary Peters is vacating. Rep. Haley Stevens, El-Sayed's primary rival, told Politico that Rogers is engaging Black voters in Detroit "harder and more successfully" than any Republican she can remember. She also criticized an ad running in Michigan that blames Israel for economic troubles. "This type of fearmongering about Israel is wrong," Stevens wrote on X.

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Sen. Susan Collins by 1.4 points. Jackson drew backlash after telling Collins to "shut up" when a protester interrupted their final debate.

In Ohio, a Suffolk University poll has Democrat Sherrod Brown at 47% and appointed Sen. Jon Husted at 44%, with a margin of error of 4.4 points. Husted is filling the final two years of the term JD Vance won in 2022. Republicans hold a significant spending advantage in both Ohio and Texas.

New Times/Siena polling beyond the toss-ups

The newest surveys suggest Democrats have chances beyond the core seven. A New York Times/Siena poll found Republican Sen. Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews tied at 48% among likely voters in South Carolina. A separate Times/Siena poll showed a dead heat in Kansas.

In Minnesota, the same pollster has Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan ahead of Republican Michele Tafoya, 54% to 40%. That undercuts any Republican hope of a pickup there. In Florida, Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 50% to 44%. A University of North Florida poll last week had Moody up 49% to 45%.

In Alaska, the Post's polling average shows Democrat Mary Peltola ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan by five points. Republicans are set to outspend Democrats there by $9.5 million between Labor Day and Election Day, according to AdImpact. Republicans have accused a second candidate on the ballot, retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., of trying to confuse voters and help Peltola. He denies it.

What Republicans are arguing

Republicans say Democrats have drifted too far left for the average voter. The party points to candidates with ties to democratic socialist ideas, such as El-Sayed. Even in the Times/Siena data, voters in Minnesota expressed concern that Flanagan is too far left. In South Carolina, 39% of likely voters said Andrews is too far left, according to CNN's polling.

The Republican climate is difficult. Fox News contributor Remy Numa, who runs the network's Power Rankings, said "on the polling alone, you could call any of them toss-ups." Fox's rankings cited persistent inflation, high gas prices tied to an unpopular Iran war, and Trump's weak approval numbers. They also noted that Republicans defend six of the nine most competitive seats.

As for the House, Democrats are heavily favored to take it. Republicans currently hold it 218-214, and Democrats need a net gain of three seats.

What to watch

Polling error is the main variable. Leads of one to three points in Texas, Michigan and Maine are smaller than typical survey error, and Republicans have been fretting about sluggish rural turnout in Texas. Polls close Tuesday, Nov. 3. Control of the Senate, and with it Trump's judicial and cabinet nominations, could come down to a few thousand votes in a few states.