Pentagon Sends 2,000 Marines and a Carrier Strike Group Toward Iran as the Rial Hits a New Record Low

Since Trump rejected Tehran's seven-day ceasefire proposal and Secretary of State Marco Rubio expelled Iran's delegation from New York earlier this week, Washington has moved from diplomatic pressure to a visible military buildup, while Iran's currency keeps cratering.

An unnamed U.S. official told reporters Thursday that the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and its strike group left San Diego for the Middle East, and a Marine expeditionary force of more than 2,000 troops departed earlier this week, according to Iran International. The official said that by the end of November, the U.S. expects to have three aircraft carriers and two amphibious groups positioned around Iran, giving Washington what the official called "many options" in dealing with Tehran.

Iran's acting defense ministry chief, Majid Ebn-e-Reza, pushed back Thursday against U.S. claims that Iran's defense industry has been destroyed, writing on X that the claims "change nothing" and that Iran's capabilities remain intact.

The Rial Keeps Falling

Iran's currency hit a new record low Tuesday, with traders in Tehran exchanging more than 2.5 million rials to the dollar, according to the Los Angeles Times. That's down from the previous record of 2.2 million to the dollar set just 27 days earlier on September 2. The paper reports the rial has repeatedly hit new lows since the war began in February, driven by a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian oil and new sanctions imposed since the fighting started.

President Masoud Pezeshkian told a meeting of entrepreneurs Thursday that Iran "has never avoided" dialogue with the United States, "although the United States targeted our country three times," according to Tasnim news as cited by ZeroHedge. He said the government is seeking to widen trade through Pakistan, Iraq, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan because of what he called "restrictions at sea."

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iranian media the focus of indirect talks with Washington is "solely on the Strait of Hormuz," per the LA Times, and said Qatari mediators are expected to raise the matter with the American side again before a final U.S. response comes back to Tehran.

ZeroHedge reports that Iranian crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz stand at near zero for September because of the U.S. blockade. Al Jazeera, citing commodity analytics firm Kpler, reports that overall oil and petroleum flow through the Strait hit roughly 80% of pre-war levels in September, with total Middle East crude exports reaching an estimated 16.328 million barrels per day, the highest since the war began February 28, and Hormuz-specific flows near 9.719 million bpd.

The apparent contradiction dissolves once you separate what each source measures. Al Jazeera's recovery figure reflects total regional traffic through the strait, driven largely by Saudi Arabia, not Iran's own exports. ZeroHedge's near-zero figure is specific to Iranian crude getting through the U.S. blockade. Both can be true at once: the strait is busier because Gulf neighbors are shipping more, while Iran's own oil is still largely locked out.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, told Al Jazeera that the traffic recovery is "encouraging, but flows are not yet regarded as completely secure or guaranteed, particularly while the wider conflict remains unresolved." Tanker insurance costs remain elevated.

IRGC Appeals to American Voters

Gen. Hossein Mohebbi, chief spokesman for Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, called on Americans Tuesday to take to the streets to protest the war, according to the LA Times. He read a letter at a Tehran press conference urging U.S. citizens to pressure Washington, claiming the war can only end if the U.S. "admits defeat and leaves the Mideast." The appeal lands about five weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms, where polling shows the war and elevated gas prices have darkened voter mood, a dynamic Trump's Republican Party is already navigating.

Whether a direct appeal from an Iranian paramilitary spokesman to American voters is meant to shape a U.S. election outcome rather than end a war remains an open question. Tehran would say it's simply trying to stop American casualties and spare its own civilians further economic pain from the blockade. Either way, the IRGC's message arrived the same week Washington confirmed it is tripling its carrier presence in the region, not winding it down.

Meanwhile Amnesty International on Thursday called on Iranian authorities to halt flogging sentences against singer Parastoo Ahmadi and eight others, upheld by an appeals court in Qom on September 25 over a 2024 unveiled livestream concert. A separate case, that of death-row prisoner Sevda Ebrahimi Shamsabadi, who HRANA reports has been denied treatment for multiple sclerosis, underscores that Tehran's domestic crackdown has continued uninterrupted through seven months of war.

The open question now is whether Araghchi's "more serious" Hormuz talks produce an actual deal before the U.S. carrier buildup is complete in late November, or whether Washington's naval presence is designed to make Tehran concede with or without one.