The Numbers Don't Lie — Trump Flipped This Race Alone

On March 3, John Cornyn beat Ken Paxton by roughly two points in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary. On Tuesday, May 27, Paxton won the runoff 64 to 36 percent.

That represents a 26-point reversal.

The only variable that changed between round one and round two: Donald Trump endorsed Paxton one week before Election Day. According to Reason, candidates who were eliminated in the first round had collected less than 17 percent of the vote combined — so their supporters alone cannot explain Paxton's landslide.

Trump's own explanation for dumping Cornyn? The senator said in February 2016 that Trump could be "an albatross around the down-ballot races" and called him "a controversial figure." That's the sin. Nine years ago. During the primary. Before Trump even won the nomination.

Cornyn spent four full Senate terms defending Trump's policies, served as a top surrogate after the first impeachment, and holds an 85 percent lifetime rating from the CPAC Foundation, according to Reason. None of that mattered. Loyalty to Trump — retroactively — is the only currency that counts.

Thune Tells GOP to Fall in Line

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) wasted no time. In a radio interview Wednesday, according to The Hill, Thune urged Senate Republicans to "pivot" away from Cornyn and get behind Paxton. That's the party leader telling his caucus to forget the bruising primary and rally around a man who spent years fighting impeachment charges, FBI investigations, and a lawsuit from his own former subordinates.

Thune doesn't have a choice. Republicans need that Texas seat to protect their Senate majority. So the calculus is simple: swallow hard, back Paxton, and hope November goes better than the math suggests.

Even Bannon Admits This Is a Problem

Steve Bannon — one of the architects of MAGA — said on Wednesday that Paxton beating Talarico in November will be "very tough," according to The Hill.

Texas hasn't sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. Beto O'Rourke lost to Ted Cruz by less than three points in 2018, which liberals treated as a near-miracle. The structural advantage here is enormous for Republicans. And yet even Bannon is hedging.

That tells you everything about how damaged Paxton's baggage is — and how seriously Democrats are taking Talarico.

Talarico's 'Olive Branch' Is Getting Way Too Much Credit

After Paxton's win was called Tuesday, Talarico posted on X: "To Senator Cornyn's supporters: you have a place in our campaign."

The liberal internet went wild. Mehdi Hasan called it a "smart tweet from a smart politician." Neera Tanden reminded everyone that Beto lost by only two. Charlotte Clymer declared "this is how it's done."

But Talarico did NOT moderate a single policy position. His campaign website still calls for hiking taxes, raising the minimum wage, making everyone eligible for Medicare, aggressive antitrust enforcement, opposition to school choice, and abortion access. He's a party-line Democrat running a party-line platform.

His message to disaffected Cornyn Republicans isn't "I share your values." It's "the other guy is corrupt, so vote for me." That's a standard negative contrast campaign dressed up in soft language.

Washington Post contributor Dominic Pino noted the disconnect: the conciliatory tweet and the actual policy platform are two completely different documents.

Talarico Claims Support From Disaffected Trump Voters

On Tuesday, Talarico told reporters that his campaign is attracting former Trump voters who support him but do so quietly — according to The Hill — "like they're in witness protection."

Maybe. Or maybe that's a candidate doing what candidates do: making his coalition sound bigger than it is before the race is fully joined.

Some genuine crossover support is plausible given Paxton's documented scandals. But anonymous claims of "whispering support" from former Trump voters lack independent verification.

The Competing Narratives

Left-leaning outlets are spending enormous energy on the "Texas could turn blue" narrative, fueled by Talarico's gracious tweet and Paxton's baggage. Right-leaning outlets are largely ignoring Bannon's admission that this race is "very tough" — which complicates the "Texas is a safe red state" storyline.

What emerges is this: Trump's grip on Republican primaries is real and powerful, but it may come at a cost in November. The Texas Senate seat — which should be a layup for Republicans — is now genuinely competitive because the candidate with the clearest path to winning just got knocked out by a presidential grudge dating to 2016.

The Stakes

If Paxton loses in November, Republicans could lose a Senate seat in a state they haven't lost since Reagan was president. That could flip the Senate majority. That affects every piece of legislation, every judicial confirmation, every budget fight for the next two years.

All because Trump remembered what John Cornyn said about him nine years ago.