The Numbers Moved Fast After Trump Spoke

Prediction markets shifted dramatically after Trump's endorsement.

As of Sunday, May 25, Paxton held a 96% probability of winning on Polymarket, according to ms.now. On Kalshi, he led Cornyn by nearly 90%.

The shift was almost instantaneous. On May 18 — the day before Trump endorsed — Kalshi had Paxton at 63.7% and Cornyn at 37.2%. By the morning of May 20, it was Paxton 90.1%, Cornyn 10.3%. One endorsement post on social media did that.

What the Polling Actually Said

The University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs surveyed 1,200 likely Republican runoff voters between April 28 and May 1 — before Trump's endorsement. Even then, Paxton led 48% to Cornyn's 45%, with 7% undecided. Margin of error was plus or minus 2.83 percentage points, according to the University of Houston.

The race was already tilting Paxton's way. Trump didn't create the momentum — he accelerated it.

One overlooked data point: that same UH survey found voters evenly split on who would be the stronger general election candidate against Democrat James Talarico. Forty-three percent said Cornyn, 43% said Paxton, 14% said neither. Republican primary voters aren't blind to the general election problem. They just don't seem to care enough to change their vote.

Cornyn's Last Stand — On TV, Not in Person

According to AP News, both candidates were largely scarce in public during the final day of campaigning but unavoidable on television. When you're trailing, you flood the airwaves because knocking on doors won't save you.

The Texas Tribune reported that Cornyn was in Corpus Christi on May 22 and Paxton held a rally in San Antonio on May 21. Neither man is blanketing the state with retail politics. This is an air war, and Paxton has the wind at his back.

The Texas Tribune also confirmed that the 13-month race has now burned through $135 million total — consistent with prior reporting.

The GOP Civil War Is Out in the Open

Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, went on CNN Sunday and didn't hold back.

"To call Paxton ethically challenged is to call Jeffrey Dahmer suffering from an eating disorder," Tillis said, according to ms.now. "This guy is an empty suit and will do us no service by being in the U.S. Congress."

A sitting Republican senator called Trump's endorsed candidate a hollow fraud. On CNN. The day before the vote.

Meanwhile, Trump called Paxton a "true MAGA Warrior" who has "ALWAYS delivered for Texas," and dismissed Cornyn as "not supportive" during tough times — a clear reference to Cornyn's January 6, 2021 vote to certify the 2020 election results, though Trump didn't say that explicitly, according to the Texas Tribune.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly urged Trump NOT to back Paxton. Trump did it anyway. The Republican Senate caucus is watching one of their most senior members potentially get wiped out by their own president.

No Clean Outcome for the GOP

If Paxton wins Tuesday: Senate Republicans lose a reliable, senior member in Cornyn — someone who knows how to cut deals — and replace him with a candidate carrying felony securities fraud indictment baggage and an impeachment history. He then faces Talarico in November in what polling already shows is a competitive race.

If Cornyn somehow pulls off the upset: Trump is publicly embarrassed, MAGA voters are alienated, and turnout in November becomes a question mark.

Either way, Republican leadership faces fallout.

The Wild Card Nobody Wants to Talk About

The New York Times flagged a separate but related Texas story: Democratic House candidate Maureen Galindo facing blowback over comments about "Zionists" in a contested U.S. House district. Democratic leaders are trying to stop her from winning her own primary runoff.

Texas Democrats have their own chaos to manage. But Talarico — the Senate candidate — has kept himself relatively clean throughout this process and positioned himself to benefit from whatever wreckage the Republican primary leaves behind.

Tuesday's Vote

Tuesday's vote is Ken Paxton's to lose. Prediction markets say he's a near-certainty. The last pre-endorsement poll already had him ahead. Cornyn's only public weapon left is television ads in a race where the dominant variable — Trump's blessing — is already baked in.

Texas Republicans are choosing the candidate their own Senate colleagues are comparing to a serial killer. Voters get to decide if that matters. Tuesday finds out.