Latino Trump Voters and Buyer's Remorse

The UnidosUS poll — conducted April 27 through May 14 by BSP Research and Shaw & Company Research across 3,000 registered Latino voters nationally and in 32 competitive congressional districts — has a margin of error of 1.8%. These are serious numbers.

67% of Latino voters now disapprove of Trump's job performance. That includes majority disapproval in every region surveyed, according to CBS News. Even in Florida — Trump's home state — 51% of Latino voters disapprove.

Democrats are getting 54% of Latino House vote intentions right now. That sounds okay until you realize Democrats got 60% in 2022, 63% in 2020, and 69% in 2018, according to CBS News. They're not recovering lost ground. They're holding a diminished floor.

The Shift Among Trump Voters

Trump won 48% of Latino voters in 2024 — a 12-point jump from 2020, per Pew Research Center. That surge helped him win Arizona and hold Texas.

Now one in four Latino Trump voters say they would NOT vote for him again, according to the UnidosUS survey. That figure has jumped from 9% in April 2025 and 13% last November. The trajectory is clear.

In Texas specifically — where Trump captured roughly 55% of Latino voters in 2024, a state record — the same poll found one in five Texas Latino Trump voters would not support him again, according to the Texas Tribune.

Clarissa Martínez De Castro, vice president of UnidosUS's Latino Vote Initiative, called it a mix of "buyer's remorse" and wanting a "do over."

What's Driving This

The top issues pushing Latinos away from Trump, per the UnidosUS poll:

• Cost of living and inflation: 44%
• Immigration enforcement: 33%
• Jobs and wages also ranked high

The narrative from some corners of conservative media has been that Latino voters moved right because of culture-war issues and machismo. The data suggests otherwise. It's the economy. And right now the economy is squeezing them.

What the Coverage Is Missing

Left-leaning outlets are running this story as a straightforward "Trump loses Latinos" narrative. Clean, simple, politically useful. But that framing ignores the equally important second half: Democrats are at 54% with Latino House voters — exactly where they were in 2024, a cycle they lost.

UnidosUS itself noted that both parties are underperforming their 2024 levels among Latinos.

For comparison: just 5% of Latino Harris voters from 2024 say they wouldn't vote for her again. Harris lost. So Democrats have high loyalty among a coalition that already wasn't enough to win.

Trump's Midterm Comment

At his Cabinet meeting Wednesday, Trump said — out loud — "I don't care about the midterms," according to The Hill. He was responding to questions about whether Republican priorities would hurt GOP candidates in November.

Republicans currently hold narrow margins in both the House and Senate. They cannot afford to lose many seats.

Turnout: The Wildcard

A new Economist/YouGov poll found 57% of Americans say they "definitely will vote" in the 2026 midterms, according to The Hill. That's high for a midterm at this stage.

UnidosUS specifically notes that Latino voters are especially motivated to turn out this cycle. Elevated Latino turnout motivation, 67% disapproval of Trump among that group, and a Democratic Party barely holding its 2024 floor create an unpredictable battleground.

The competitive districts in Texas, Arizona, and Florida all have significant Latino voter populations. Flipping even a handful of those shifts the House.

The Canada Signal

On the same day these polls dropped, Canada announced it was choosing Swedish-made surveillance planes over U.S. options, according to The Hill. Prime Minister Mark Carney's government explicitly cited a desire to reduce dependence on U.S. defense firms.

This isn't directly connected to Latino voter polls. But it is part of the same picture: the international and domestic cost of Trump's governing style is showing up in real data simultaneously. Allies are diversifying away. Voters who swung toward him are reconsidering.

What's Happening

Trump's coalition with Latino voters — one of the most significant political realignments of the last decade — is cracking. The economy is doing it, not Democrats. Democrats remain too weak to fully capitalize. And Trump is on record saying he doesn't care about the midterms. For regular people, especially Latino families worried about grocery bills and job security, neither party is currently earning your vote.