Ohio Hospital Says Talarico Was Never a Patient After Online Rumor; Texas Senate Polls Range From Tie to 6-Point Lead

Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico spent roughly a week and a half off the campaign trail this month with the flu. In that gap, a rumor took off that he had checked into a psychiatric hospital in Ohio. The hospital says that never happened.

The rumor and the denial

The timeline is not in dispute. Talarico was at a campaign event near Dallas on Sept. 26 and at fundraisers in New York City on Sept. 28 and 29. The next day he addressed the U.S. Hispanic Business Council virtually, saying he was too sick to attend in person. "I guess I've been shaking too many hands on the campaign trail," he said at the virtual event.

The Paxton campaign seized on the absence. Spokesperson Madison Cercy said in a statement last Thursday: "Low-T Jimmy appears to be having a full-blown mental Tala-freak-out on the national stage. If James Talarico is too fragile to face Texans, he has no business asking for their vote."

On Sunday, Oct. 11, influencer Nick Sortor posted what he called a "BREAKING EXCLUSIVE." He claimed an Ohio mental hospital confirmed Talarico had been discharged from the Lindner Center of Hope near Cincinnati and that "the 'flu' thing was a BIG FAT LIE." The post drew millions of views, and Elon Musk engaged with it.

Paxton senior adviser Michelle Smith also posted Sunday that a friend told her a doctor confirmed Talarico "has definitely been admitted to a mental institution." The Paxton campaign did not respond to the Texas Tribune's request for comment on her claim.

Later that day, the Lindner Center posted on X: "Representative James Talarico has never received treatment from Lindner Center of Hope." Talarico shared it and wrote, "I've never even been to Ohio." His spokesman, JT Ennis, called the claim "a lie designed to promote a pathetic conspiracy theory." The New York Times also reviewed home security footage Talarico provided to show he was in Austin during the period in question.

Talarico appeared at Austin City Limits on Friday, Oct. 9, and at a Kacey Musgraves concert in Dallas on Saturday. Sortor responded to the hospital's statement by posting that he had caught the flu and would answer questions in "12-15 days (maybe)."

What Paxton's side says

The campaign's argument is that a Senate candidate who stays off the trail for more than a week owes voters an explanation. Paxton's campaign demanded "proof of life" and aired ads counting the days. Breitbart News has said Talarico gave unsatisfactory answers about the absence. Even critics of the rumor concede that voters can ask about a candidate's health. Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a Republican turned Trump critic, wrote that "voters have every right to ask," but that the opposition inventing an answer is something else.

Trump and Fox News also pressed Talarico to show himself on a debate stage. Talarico's reply, per commentator Brian Tyler Cohen, was that he has been asking for a debate with Paxton for months.

Paxton has a bigger problem than a flu rumor. The Wall Street Journal reported that Paxton spent New Year's Eve 2024 in Dubai with his girlfriend and two men under federal indictment, citing video of the party, court filings and people familiar with the matter. One of them, Anosh Ahmed, had given Paxton $190,000, according to campaign finance records reviewed by the Journal. Both men have since come back to the U.S. to face the charges, which involve embezzling $15 million from a Chicago hospital. Paxton senior political adviser Nick Maddux did not address the trip directly, saying Paxton "has been politically persecuted for years."

Where the polls stand

The race is close and the polls disagree on how close.

• Quantus Insights, Oct. 9-11, 854 likely voters: Paxton 47.2%, Talarico 46.7%, a statistical tie. Libertarian Brown is at 2%.
• ReconMR/Siena, Oct. 5-8, 617 likely voters: Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
• Trafalgar Group, a Republican pollster, Oct. 6-8, 1,086 likely voters: Talarico 47%, Paxton 44%.
• YouGov, Sept. 28-Oct. 5, 3,623 likely voters: Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.
• New York Times/Siena, Sept. 21-30, 615 likely voters: Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%.
• Marist, 1,139 registered voters: Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.

Quantus found Paxton winning voters 65 and older, 56% to 39%, and consolidating Republicans at 87%. Talarico leads independents, 52% to 37%, and voters under 30, 62% to 29%. Younger voters are the group least likely to turn out in a midterm.

The Marist survey also had Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 46%, within the margin of error.

Money and the final stretch

This is the most expensive Senate contest of the cycle. Axios reported on Oct. 1 that a Senate Leadership Fund-aligned PAC spent $131 million in Texas in September alone. Musk has reportedly spent $276 million boosting Republicans through various entities. Over $130 million was spent against Paxton in his primary and runoff against Sen. John Cornyn. Talarico has outraised Paxton $31.6 million to $9.3 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

Vice President JD Vance rallied in Tyler on Tuesday, Oct. 13, calling Talarico "a threat to your way of life" and urging the crowd not to elect "'Tala-freako' to the U.S. Senate." Trump held a San Antonio rally for Paxton days earlier, his third Texas stop in a month. Democrats haven't won any statewide race in Texas in 32 years.

Early in-person voting begins Monday, Oct. 19, and the general election is about three weeks away. Whether the Dubai report or the discredited hospital claim moves any of those numbers is the open question.