New UH Poll Shows Paxton Leads Cornyn by 3 Points

The University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs surveyed 1,200 likely Republican primary runoff voters between April 28 and May 1, according to the Texas Tribune and The Texan. The results: Paxton at 48%, Cornyn at 45%, with 7% undecided. Margin of error: +/-2.83 points.

The poll contrasts sharply with prediction markets, which had Paxton at 96%. Prediction markets aggregate money, not votes. Motivated Paxton supporters flooding a betting platform can inflate his odds beyond what polling shows.

The UH poll is the first non-partisan statewide survey of this runoff, according to the Texas Tribune. Every other poll since the March 3 primary came from groups with partisan ties. Most showed a close race or a small Paxton lead — consistent with UH's findings.

The Wesley Hunt Factor

In the March 3 primary, Cornyn finished first with 42%, Paxton second with 40.5%, and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt third with 13.5%, according to the Texas Tribune. Neither candidate hit 50%, forcing the runoff.

Hunt's voters are the swing bloc. The UH poll found them breaking toward Paxton 54% to 35% — a 19-point margin in Paxton's favor. But whether Hunt voters actually show up for the runoff remains uncertain. Turnout in runoffs collapses. Whoever mobilizes their base wins.

Hunt himself has refused to endorse either candidate despite overtures from both camps, according to the Texas Tribune. On the trail, Hunt hammered Cornyn on his age — Cornyn is 74 — and his role in crafting a bipartisan gun safety bill. Hunt essentially ran as Paxton without the ethical baggage.

If Hunt stays silent, his voters stay split. That could keep Cornyn alive.

The Attorney General Race

While Cornyn-Paxton grabs the Senate headlines, the GOP race to replace Paxton as Texas Attorney General is running parallel.

The same UH poll found state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston) leading U.S. Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX-21) by 48% to 39% — a 9-point margin — with 13% undecided, according to The Texan.

The attorney general's office wields significant power. Antonio Dias, practice leader of the State Attorney General Enforcement Investigation and Litigation practice at law firm Jones Day, told Houston Public Media that the Texas AG has become one of the most aggressive advocacy offices in the country at the federal level over the past decade and a half — routinely joining multi-state lawsuits against whichever party controls Washington.

Turnout and Favorability

A 3-point gap within the margin of error is not a verdict. Turnout dynamics in a May runoff are brutal and unpredictable. Paxton has the enthusiasm. Cornyn has the infrastructure. Neither advantage is guaranteed to translate.

Paxton's net favorability is +7%, while Cornyn's sits at -2%, per The Texan. Favorability drives turnout.

Political analyst and poll director Mark Jones told The Texan that down-ballot candidates are finding it harder to reach voters this cycle.

Implications

If Paxton wins the Senate seat, Texas gets a MAGA loyalist in the Senate and a new AG — likely Middleton — who will continue the state's aggressive federal litigation posture. Two offices move hard right simultaneously.

If Cornyn survives, it's a direct repudiation of Trump's endorsement power in his home state. That has national implications for 2026 and beyond.

May 26 remains wide open.