Midterm Fundraising Tops $15 Billion as Democratic Candidates Outraise Republicans in 27 of 35 Senate Races

Since Elon Musk's representatives disclosed this week that he has given roughly $276 million since July, the wider picture of who is paying for the 2026 midterms has filled in. It is a split-screen: Democratic candidates are winning the fundraising race, and Republican outside groups are winning the airwaves.

The scale of the spending

Federal Election Commission data show more than $15 billion raised since January 2025, and about half of it spent. AdImpact data put ad spending on House and Senate races above $4 billion, with hundreds of millions more planned for the final two weeks.

Candidates alone have raised about $3.38 billion, according to USAFacts' analysis of FEC data downloaded Oct. 19. House candidates account for $2.21 billion and Senate candidates for $1.17 billion.

By party, 1,367 Democratic candidates have raised $2.0 billion. A total of 1,050 Republican candidates have raised $1.3 billion.

Democrats lead at the candidate level

From July through September, the Democratic or independent candidate outraised the Republican in 27 of the 35 Senate races on the ballot, NPR's review of FEC filings found. In the 13 most competitive races, the advantage was nearly 5 to 1.

Nine of the 10 top-raising candidates in the country are Democrats. Texas Senate nominee James Talarico leads at $128.8 million, followed by Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff at $110.4 million and Ohio's Sherrod Brown at $61.7 million. The only Republican in the top 10 is House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana, at $24.2 million.

Talarico's campaign says its roughly $60 million third-quarter haul is a record for a Senate campaign in that period.

The gaps in some red states are stark. Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton raised nearly $10 million last quarter. Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall raised about $800,000. Mississippi Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith reported under $700,000.

Republican megadonors and outside groups

The top of the donor list tilts the other way. CNBC's review of FEC filings through Sept. 25 found 14 of the 20 biggest funders this cycle backing Republicans exclusively or almost entirely. By CNBC's count, Republican-aligned donors gave $830.5 million, Democratic-aligned donors $224.7 million, and special-interest donors $142.1 million.

Among the top 10 individual and family funders, nine lean Republican. Jeff and Janine Yass gave $95.3 million, Andreessen Horowitz $91.3 million and Musk $90.6 million as of that snapshot. Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein gave $70 million and Miriam Adelson $67.6 million.

CNBC also found that four tech and crypto donor groups, including Andreessen Horowitz and the Winklevoss brothers, have steered about $93 million to MAGA Inc. That super PAC started September with $415.8 million in cash, having raised $424.4 million since January 2025.

Two Trump-aligned groups launched in September, No Going Back PAC and Safety & Affordability PAC. AdImpact says they have secured about $140 million in ad placements and holds.

The result, per NPR, is that Republican outside groups, including three super PACs tied to MAGA Inc., have outspent Democrats on television to portray the other party as too extreme to run Congress.

Where the money goes next

MAGA Inc. still holds several hundred million dollars. Politico reported that it is coordinating with other leading GOP super PACs to abandon less competitive House races. The plan is to put more money behind vulnerable Republicans and prioritize Senate contests.

The stakes are tight. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority and can lose no more than three seats before surrendering control. The House stands at 218-214.

Musk is also running his own operation. He donated over $76 million this summer to America PAC, which spent that much building a canvassing program aimed at hard-to-reach Republican voters. The group is active in seven Senate battlegrounds and nearly three dozen House races.

Trump is working the other side of the ledger with rallies. On Truth Social, he wrote that his rallies "have made a tremendous difference with the enthusiasm of the Republican Party." He listed stops in Youngstown, Ohio, for Sen. Jon Husted and Vivek Ramaswamy, and in Alaska for Sen. Dan Sullivan and Rep. Nick Begich.

What the polls say

Money has not settled the closest race. A Fox News Poll released Wednesday, Oct. 21, found Republican Ken Paxton and Talarico tied at 49% among likely Texas voters. Talarico led 51% to 49% in September. The poll surveyed 1,398 likely voters Oct. 15-19, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points.

Texas voters in the same poll favored Republican control of the Senate, 51% to 47%. Democrats held an enthusiasm edge, with 69% of their voters extremely interested in the election against 61% of Republicans.

Daily Wire's tally shows more than three million Americans have already voted. Election Day is Nov. 3. The open question for the final stretch is how much of MAGA Inc.'s reserve gets deployed, and in which Senate races.