Michigan Senate Race: GOP-Funded Poll Shows Rogers Narrowly Ahead, Independent Surveys Still Favor El-Sayed

Since Abdul El-Sayed edged out Rep. Haley Stevens by less than a point in Michigan's August Democratic primary, the state's open Senate race has produced wildly different pictures of who's winning depending on who's paying for the poll.

A survey commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, whose honorary chair is Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA), found Republican Mike Rogers leading El-Sayed 44.4% to 43.1%, according to the Washington Reporter, which first obtained the poll. That falls inside the survey's 4.7-point margin of error, making it effectively a toss-up. Torchlight Strategies conducted the poll September 15-19, interviewing 643 likely voters.

A week earlier, Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media ran their own survey of 1,000 likely voters, September 12-14, and got the opposite result: El-Sayed up 48% to 46%, with a 3-point margin of error. Emerson's Spencer Kimball pointed to an education split driving the numbers, with voters lacking a four-year degree favoring Rogers 48% to 45% and college graduates backing El-Sayed 53% to 42%.

Those two results don't cancel out; they confirm the race is close. A Washington Post/George Washington University Schar School poll also gave El-Sayed a narrow edge, and both Rasmussen Reports and Emerson had him up by two to three points. A Republican-aligned poll now has Rogers ahead for the first time in weeks.

The DSA Problem

What the Common Sense for America poll captures, regardless of the topline number, is a real vulnerability for El-Sayed. The survey found 50.4% of Michigan voters view him unfavorably against 39.8% favorable, a double-digit deficit. When told of his history with the Democratic Socialists of America, 52.7% said it made them less likely to vote for him. The DSA itself sits at a net-negative 51.9% unfavorable to 25.5% favorable statewide.

El-Sayed has pushed back on the label directly, saying he does not identify as a democratic socialist, according to the Washington Reporter's reporting picked up by Breitbart. He's also apologized to Jewish Democrats over past remarks, an apology Rogers rejected on Fox News as a "sad attempt" to stem the bleeding, arguing Jewish voters are increasingly reaching out to his campaign.

Piker, Carlson, and the 9/11 Fight

El-Sayed's association with leftist streamer Hasan Piker, who campaigned with him on the final day of the primary, has become its own storyline. The Daily Wire's opinion coverage highlighted past Piker remarks including that "America deserved 9/11" and that people should "motherf*ck the U.S. Constitution," and criticized El-Sayed for scrubbing references to Piker from his campaign bio after the primary.

Tucker Carlson used his newsletter to defend El-Sayed's suggestion that 9/11 commemorations often fail to "center" Muslims affected in the aftermath, comparing the 3,000 killed to the capacity of a Division III hockey arena, according to the Daily Wire. Carlson also said Rogers should be kept "far away from Washington." The Daily Wire's characterization of El-Sayed as a "terror-sympathizer" reflects that outlet's opinion framing, not an established fact, and El-Sayed has not been charged with or credibly tied to any terror-related conduct in these sources.

Harris Steps In

Kamala Harris campaigned with El-Sayed in Detroit, framing the race around Medicaid and Black maternal health, according to the Guardian. She said Trump "cut Medicaid funding by a trillion dollars" and argued the Senate should be a "stopgap on the abuses of this administration." The Guardian noted Harris is working to unite a party still split from the primary, since Black voters in Detroit favored Stevens over El-Sayed. The Guardian also tied El-Sayed's Gaza position, he's called Israel's campaign a genocide, to a Quinnipiac poll showing 38% of voters now more sympathetic to Palestinians versus 35% to Israelis, the highest Palestinian-leaning share since Quinnipiac started asking in December 2001.

Governor's Race Shows the Same Split

The pattern repeats down-ballot. Common Sense for America has Republican John James trailing Democrat Jocelyn Benson by just over a point, 42.2% to 41.1%. Emerson has Benson up 49% to 42%, outside the margin of error entirely. Emerson also found Trump's approval in Michigan at 40%, with 55% disapproving.

With early absentee voting underway in Michigan and the November election five weeks out, the key question is whether the DSA-and-Piker attacks or the Medicaid-and-Gaza counterattack moves more actual votes before ballots are cast.