Lula Campaign Ad Accuses Trump of Trying to 'Colonise' Brazil Ahead of October 4 Vote

Since Lula's September 18 rally pledge to fly to New York and personally warn Donald Trump against meddling in Brazil's election, followed by his September 22 speech at the UN General Assembly, the fight has moved into a national TV ad campaign. Lula's team released a minute-long spot this past week accusing Trump of trying to "colonise" Brazil and "capture its natural resources" by backing his far-right opponent, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, according to The Guardian.

The ad, published on social media before airing on Brazilian television, features a female narrator telling viewers: "Flávio Bolsonaro is Trump's candidate and what Trump wants is to colonise Brazil, take our riches, steal our future and leave us in the dust." Lula reinforced the message on X, writing that if Bolsonaro wins, "Brazil will become a colony again."

The State Department has flatly denied the interference charge. "Any insinuation of a 'ploy' to undermine a democratic nation's election is a baseless lie," the department said in a statement cited by The Guardian. No US official has been charged with, or formally accused in any legal proceeding of, interfering in Brazil's vote.

What's actually driving the tension

Washington imposed two rounds of tariffs on Brazilian goods in July, hitting some imports at 25%, according to Al Jazeera. Trump has also been an open backer of former President Jair Bolsonaro and his son Flávio, according to Anadolu Agency. Brazil has held off on retaliating while trade talks continue, though Lula told CNN he could invoke the country's reciprocity law if negotiations fail.

The ad also points to a confidential document Brazil's intelligence agency sent to electoral authorities warning of a "critical level" of risk from US interference, and to reported ties between Bolsonaro's campaign and Rockbridge, a conservative donor network co-founded by Vice President JD Vance, per The Guardian. Those are allegations raised in the campaign's own messaging and in Brazilian media reports; they have not been confirmed by any independent investigation or Brazilian electoral authority ruling.

Dozens of Democratic members of Congress wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio this month denouncing what they called a "sustained, multifaceted campaign of interference and destabilisation in Brazil," The Guardian reported. This was a political letter from opposition-party lawmakers, not a finding from any US or Brazilian oversight body.

The trade picture Washington may be missing

Americas Quarterly offers a counterpoint to the colonization framing: Brazil's economic ties don't split neatly along Lula-versus-Bolsonaro lines. China absorbed 30.7% of Brazilian exports in the first eight months of this year, compared with 9.6% for the US, according to official trade data cited by the outlet. Brazil also holds an estimated 23.1% of the world's rare earth reserves, at a moment when China controls roughly 70% of global rare-earth production and 94% of magnet manufacturing, per a study for Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy.

This structural reality undercuts the idea that a Bolsonaro win would simply hand Brazil to Washington. Jair Bolsonaro ran in 2018 warning China was "buying Brazil," then in office kept trade with Beijing flowing and left Huawei eligible to build Brazil's 5G network despite US pressure, Americas Quarterly notes. Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign says it wants to negotiate "from China to the European Union, from the United States to Asian markets" rather than pick a single patron.

The polling and the mood

An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey showed Lula and Bolsonaro locked in a statistical deadlock heading into the vote, according to Anadolu Agency. A spring 2026 Pew Research Center survey found only about four in ten Brazilian adults are satisfied with how their democracy is working, and 68% lack confidence that elected officials act in the public's best interest. Brazilians view the US and China about equally favorably, with 47% holding a favorable view of the United States, per Pew.

Breitbart's coverage of Lula's UN speech framed him as a "socialist" leader "trashing US power," emphasizing his criticism of tariffs, aircraft carriers patrolling Latin American waters, and the WTO's diminished standing. That framing captures Lula's rhetoric but leaves out the trade and rare-earth mechanics that Americas Quarterly says complicate any simple US-versus-China storyline for whichever candidate wins.

Brazil goes to the polls October 4. If no candidate clears 50% of valid votes, Lula and Bolsonaro head to a runoff October 25. Brazil's electoral authorities have not announced any formal investigation into the interference allegations raised in Lula's ad or in his intelligence agency's internal warning, leaving the central factual dispute unresolved with just over a week to go before the first round.