Massachusetts Democratic Establishment Survives Primary Night, But Progressives Are Winning the War Elsewhere

Massachusetts Democrats had a chance to blow up their own leadership on Tuesday, September 1. They didn't take it.

Rep. Richard Neal, 77, the top Democrat on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, beat back a primary challenge from Jeromie Whalen, a 39-year-old high school teacher who ran on Medicare for All, higher taxes on the wealthy, abolishing ICE, and refusing corporate PAC money, according to Fox News and WFMD.

Sen. Ed Markey, 80, beat six-term Rep. Seth Moulton, 47, who spent the campaign arguing it was time to "pass the torch," according to CNN. Markey didn't run as the establishment pick. He ran to Moulton's left, touting the Green New Deal, Medicare for All and support for transgender rights, and framed his own win as a progressive movement victory. "Tonight is a testament to the power of the progressive movement," Markey told supporters at Boston's Omni Parker House, per CNN.

In the Boston-based 8th District, Rep. Stephen Lynch, 71, first elected in 2001, beat progressive challenger Patrick Roath despite clashes over ICE, according to Eagle Country. And in the open 6th District race to replace Moulton, Biden White House alum Dan Koh won the primary over anti-establishment sentiment, CNN reported.

Every incumbent who ran in Massachusetts kept their seat. Both Politico and Fox landed on this as the headline, but it tells only half the story.

The national picture looks very different

The Democratic establishment is getting hammered when you look beyond Massachusetts. According to Axios, seven House Democrats have lost their primaries this cycle, five of them past retirement age. Rep. Larson is among them. Reps. Steve Cohen of Tennessee, 77, and Lloyd Doggett of Texas, 79, didn't even get the chance to lose a primary; they were forced out by mid-decade redistricting.

Politico reported that democratic socialist and progressive candidates have already ousted four incumbents this year across New York, Michigan and Colorado, defeated Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee-backed picks in Maine and California, and won Senate nominations over party-preferred moderates in Maine, Michigan, Minnesota and Illinois.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who endorsed Markey, told Politico the wins show the left "can play defense, too," adding that Democratic voters "want to see bold leadership from the Democratic Party on the most assertive ideas possible." Rep. Ayanna Pressley, who also backed Markey, said the string of progressive victories "proves that there is a strategy behind this" and isn't a fluke. Amanda Litman of Run For Something told Axios that "Democratic voters are hungry for a new generation of leaders who can credibly argue they'll fight for change."

That's the progressive case, and it's not baseless. Voters really have thrown out multiple sitting Democrats this cycle, and the age of the party's leadership is a real liability Democrats themselves are debating openly.

But Rep. Brad Sherman, 71, who survived his own primary, offered a competing explanation to Axios that has nothing to do with ideology: turnout and district work. "200 Democrats are running for reelection in primaries and almost every one of them had a younger challenger," Sherman said. A senior House Democrat told Axios that Larson lost because he "didn't work his district hard," while Sherman survived because he did. Axios also noted a pattern: challengers who ran purely on generational change fared worse than those who paired youth with hard-left policy positions, like Medicare for All or abolishing ICE.

The socialism problem Democrats can't shake

None of this is happening in a vacuum. Fox News reported that House Republicans have been forcing floor votes making Democrats formally disavow socialism, a tactic clearly aimed at tying the party to its Whalen-and-Moulton wing. Former Obama chief of staff Rahm Emanuel and New Hampshire Senate candidate Chris Pappas have both moved to publicly distance themselves from democratic socialists, according to Fox's Chad Pergram.

Markey himself leaned into Green New Deal and Medicare for All rhetoric to win Tuesday, even as he's the incumbent Republicans and moderate Democrats alike will point to as evidence the party is drifting further left. Eagle Country flagged that leftist commentator Hasan Piker cheered Markey's win as proof progressive policies and transgender rights are "winning" politically, a framing plenty of swing-district Democrats would rather not have attached to their brand heading into November.

What comes next

Politico framed progressives as heading into a real test of strength in the general election. That's the most important open question here. Winning safe-blue primaries in Massachusetts, New York and Michigan proves the left can beat Democrats. It proves nothing about whether that same messaging, Medicare for All, abolishing ICE, higher taxes, wins over independents and swing voters in the battleground districts that will actually decide control of Congress this November.