MAGA Inc. Reports Nearly $277 Million in Spending Since September, With $164 Million Still in the Bank

Since Trump announced Tuesday, Oct. 20, that he would spend more than $400 million on the midterms, new federal campaign finance filings have put hard numbers on the largest piece of that effort: MAGA Inc., his flagship super PAC, has reported spending nearly $277 million since the beginning of September.

That is the paper trail for a pledge Trump has so far described only in round figures.

Where the money went

Most of the reported total moved to two affiliated groups. MAGA Inc. sent $200 million to No Going Back PAC Inc. and $25 million to Safety & Affordability PAC Inc. Both have been buying advertising.

That accounts for $225 million of the roughly $277 million. The filings summarized so far do not break down the remainder.

AdImpact, which tracks media spending and reservations, reports that the three Trump-linked groups required to disclose their donors have spent more than $256 million on advertising. That includes tens of millions of dollars in Texas to help Senate candidate Ken Paxton, who is running against Democrat James Talarico.

Elon Musk has also spent heavily in Texas. Talarico has accused him of trying to buy the seat. Musk has not been shown in these filings to have broken any rule.

Cash on hand

MAGA Inc. began September with nearly $416 million in the bank. As of Oct. 14, it had more than $164 million left.

It kept raising money during that stretch, with donors including businessperson Diane Hendricks, Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman and casino magnate Steve Wynn.

A $164 million balance with 12 days to go means the group still has substantial firepower. Whether it can all be deployed effectively is a separate question.

The cost of waiting

The Trump team held off on advertising until late in the cycle. As a result, the groups are paying far higher rates as available airtime shrinks, sometimes more than five times what the same spots would have cost if bought earlier.

That means the dollar totals overstate how much exposure the money has bought. A late-October dollar buys far less than a summer dollar.

Corry Bliss, a GOP Senate and House strategist who ran the Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans' super PAC, in 2018, called the spending unprecedented. "It's more than any president has ever spent, by far, on the midterms," he said.

What Trump claims versus what is filed

Trump wrote Tuesday that he planned to spend "over 400 Million Dollars by Election Day." He said $300 million of that had already gone to advertising, voter contact, rallies, tele-rallies, get-out-the-vote programs and efforts to prevent voters from cheating.

Trump did not say which entities supply the money. The filings document the super PAC's side. The $400 million total and the $300 million already spent are Trump's own figures, and the filings do not independently confirm them.

The stakes behind the spending

Republicans are defending slim majorities in the House and Senate. The party in power almost always loses seats in midterms, and Trump's approval ratings are low amid voter frustration over high costs and the war with Iran.

Republicans do hold a large money advantage over Democrats this cycle. Six of the seven highest-spending outside groups this cycle are right of center, and Musk's contributions are a major reason as well.

National Review's Noah Rothman has argued that where GOP-aligned groups put their money is a better signal than polls. Funding is finite, he wrote, and a group that stops spending on a candidate is usually conceding something.

Pollsters themselves are uncertain about their own numbers. Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate warned that many rural Iowans "ignored" his latest survey. Left-of-center analyst G. Elliott Morris wrote that low-effort respondents could mean polls are off by up to 3.5 points in favor of one party.

Trump's rally tour

Trump is also on a 32-state rally tour that includes deep red states such as Oklahoma, Texas and Alabama. Analysts have read those stops as a sign of trouble for the GOP.

Luke Ball, a strategist who worked on Trump's 2024 reelection bid, rejects that view. He told Fox News Digital it is "lazy analysis" to take the red-state stops at face value. His argument is that the RNC, MAGA Inc. and White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair have data showing who turns out for Trump "and nobody else."

Ball conceded the approach is a political risk, since Trump is effectively on the ballot.

What comes next

Election Day is Nov. 3. MAGA Inc. held more than $164 million as of Oct. 14, and the groups it funds are still buying airtime at inflated late-season prices.