Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Both Kick Off Campaigns From Home Turf as October Vote Nears

Both Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have now formally opened their October campaigns, each rallying supporters in the turf that made them.

Lula, 80, drew more than 10,000 supporters Sunday to Vila Euclides Stadium in Sao Bernardo do Campo, the Sao Paulo suburb where he became a household name 47 years ago leading metalworkers' strikes against Brazil's military dictatorship, according to Al Jazeera and the Associated Press. Wearing a hat after a skin cancer diagnosis, Lula told the crowd Brazil needs more of his policies and framed the race around defending national "sovereignty."

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, held his own rally the same day on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. His father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, is serving a 27-year sentence and under house arrest after his conviction for plotting a coup to block Lula from taking office in 2023, and did not attend, according to Al Jazeera and news4jax.

Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term. He first governed from 2003 to 2010, returned to prison on corruption convictions the Supreme Court later annulled, and won a third term in 2022 by beating Jair Bolsonaro with 50.9% of the vote, according to news4jax. Breitbart and RTE both reported Lula told supporters he would not run again after this term, joking he and wife Rosangela, 59, plan to spend the next 20 years "on vacation" focusing on romance.

Trump's shadow over the race

Every outlet in this batch flagged the same backdrop: the Trump administration's tariffs on Brazilian goods and its revocation of the visa for Brazil's ambassador to Washington. Lula's allies have accused Washington of trying to tip the race toward Flavio Bolsonaro, according to Al Jazeera and news4jax.

Euronews referred to this pressure campaign by the term some Latin American commentators use for it, the "Donroe doctrine," and noted Trump has previously backed winning right-wing candidates elsewhere in the region, including Argentina's Javier Milei.

Lula, without naming Trump directly at the Workers' Party convention, leaned hard into sovereignty rhetoric. "I want to be prepared so that no one invades this country," he said, according to Breitbart and RTE. He also warned that Brazil's rare-earth deposits, the world's second-largest after China's, would not be handed over to "the Chinese, nor the Americans, nor the French."

Flavio Bolsonaro countered by positioning himself as the dealmaker candidate. "The only one who can sit with the United States, with China, with Israel, with the Middle East, with India and with Argentina to make the best and biggest trade deals for our nation," he told supporters, according to Al Jazeera and news4jax.

Bolsonaro's argument is that Brazil's economy needs a leader Washington will actually deal with, not one locked in a tariff standoff. His international relationships, with Milei's government attending his party convention and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump administration officials voicing support, according to Euronews and news4jax, give him leverage Lula lacks. Whether those relationships translate into better trade terms for Brazil is unproven and won't be tested unless he wins.

A tight, polarized race

A Datafolha poll cited by the Taipei Times had Lula at 48% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 43% in a hypothetical second round, numbers that track with the razor-thin 2022 result. Both camps are courting the roughly 53% of Brazil's 158 million eligible voters who are women, according to Al Jazeera, against a backdrop of nearly 400 femicides recorded in Brazil's first quarter of 2026, the highest for that period since tracking began 11 years ago, per the Justice and Public Security Ministry's database.

Lula's critics, cited by Breitbart and RTE, note the Workers' Party has held power roughly 17 of the last 24 years and point to persistent crime and corruption as unresolved problems even as his social programs get credit for lifting millions out of poverty.

Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro has separately entered the race as a Senate candidate for the Liberal Party. Euronews reported the move came amid an ongoing feud with her stepson Flavio over control of Brazil's conservative movement while Jair Bolsonaro remains sidelined.

Sunday marked only the first full day of campaigning for 13 total candidates in the race, including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, both of whom toured their own regional bases, according to news4jax. Most Brazilian voters are not expected to fully tune in until television and radio campaign ads begin airing at the end of August. Watch for whether Datafolha's next poll shows movement once paid advertising starts and whether Washington's tariff posture toward Brasilia shifts before October.