The Votes Are Being Cast Right Now

Today is primary day in Louisiana. Polls are open and one of the most consequential Republican Senate primaries in years is playing out in real time.

The stakes: Can Donald Trump actually knock out a sitting GOP senator who voted to convict him?

So far, the answer is: maybe — and not cleanly.

Trump Opens Saturday With a Truth Social Tirade

Before the votes were even counted, Trump posted on Truth Social calling Sen. Bill Cassidy "a sleazebag, a terrible guy, who is BAD FOR LOUISIANA." He predicted Cassidy would get "CLOBBERED" — his word — and urged Louisiana Republicans to vote for Rep. Julia Letlow.

According to The Hill and ms.now, Trump also called Cassidy "a disloyal disaster" and relitigated the 2021 impeachment vote, writing that Cassidy campaigned on being with Trump "all the way" and then turned around and voted to convict him.

Cassidy did vote to convict. He represents a state Trump won by 22 percentage points in 2024. The political math has never been friendly to Cassidy.

Cassidy Says He's Going to Win

Cassidy isn't acting like a dead man walking.

According to Politico, Cassidy said in an interview Saturday: "I'm going to win today." He has spent the campaign arguing he can work with Trump on substance even without being in Trump's good graces personally.

"I'm not claiming the president loves me — no — but you can work with someone," Cassidy told CNN.

His campaign's counter-punch to Trump's Saturday post? They put out a video of Letlow calling herself a "progressive leader." Shade thrown. Let the voters decide what that means.

The Real Story: Fleming Blew Up Trump's Clean Revenge Play

John Fleming is the reason this primary got complicated.

Fleming, Louisiana's state treasurer and a former House Freedom Caucus member who actually served in the Trump administration, refused to get out of the race — even after the White House asked him to. Three times.

According to CNN and Raw Story, one of those entreaties included what Fleming described as an offer of "some accommodation to me, maybe a job." Fleming claims a former CDC official made the pitch — and that same official then became chair of Letlow's campaign after leaving the CDC. The official denied the accusation. The White House didn't respond to requests for comment.

A sitting administration allegedly offering a government job to a candidate to clear the field is a significant allegation. Mainstream media coverage has largely glossed over it.

The Three-Way Mess

The three-candidate field has produced political chaos.

Letlow's super PAC has spent roughly 10 times more money attacking Fleming than attacking Cassidy, according to CNN. The Trump-backed candidate is burning cash on the wrong opponent.

Cassidy, meanwhile, is largely ignoring Fleming and letting Letlow and Fleming beat each other bloody. His campaign has been publicly trolling the whole situation — issuing statements about the Letlow-Fleming "cage match" complete with popcorn emojis, per Raw Story.

Recent polling from Emerson College shows Cassidy in third place behind both Letlow and Fleming, according to Politico and ms.now.

Third place. In his own primary. For his own seat.

A Runoff Is Now the Most Likely Outcome

Louisiana requires a majority to win outright. With three serious candidates splitting the vote, nobody is expected to clear 50% today.

That means a June 27 runoff between the top two finishers is the most probable outcome, according to CNN.

If Cassidy finishes second and makes the runoff, this thing is far from over. One-on-one against either Letlow or Fleming, Cassidy could consolidate the anti-Trump vote and make it a real race.

If Cassidy finishes third, he's done.

What the Media Is Getting Wrong

Left-leaning outlets like CNN and Raw Story are framing this as "Trump's revenge plot derailed" — which is premature at best. Fleming's presence complicates the math, but Letlow is still leading in polls. Trump's endorsee could win outright today or win the runoff.

Right-leaning coverage, where it exists, has mostly ignored the Fleming job-offer allegation entirely. That's a real accountability story regardless of who it helps or hurts.

Trump's endorsement machine is less clean than advertised, but it's not broken yet.

What This Means for Regular People

This race is a stress test for something real: Can a Republican senator defy Trump and survive?

If Cassidy loses — whether today or in a runoff — the message to every other Republican in Congress is crystal clear. Cross Trump once, on anything, and you're done. Your decade of service means nothing. Your policy record means nothing.

If Cassidy wins, it means Trump's grip on the party has a limit.

Results come tonight. The real story starts then.