Kroger Shoppers Shifted $12 Billion in Spending to Amazon, Walmart and Costco Over the Past Year, Numerator Finds

Kroger is bleeding lower-income shoppers to Amazon, Walmart and Costco, and the number attached to it is $12 billion.

That figure comes from Numerator, a market research firm that tracks purchase data across 200,000 U.S. households. Its report, covering the 12 months ending July 31, 2026, found Kroger customers shifted more than $12 billion in consumer packaged goods (CPG) spending to those three rivals. Kroger directly lost more than $1 billion of that, according to Numerator's data as reported by Supermarket News and Perishable News.

Some outlets, including Yahoo Finance, ran headlines saying Kroger "lost $12 billion," language that could be misread as a stock or market-cap hit. The $12 billion is consumer spending that migrated to competitors over a year, not money that vanished from Kroger's books. Kroger's own direct loss, per Numerator, is the roughly $1 billion figure.

Kroger and Ralphs bleed trips, Fry's gains them

The pain is not evenly spread across Kroger's banners. CPG spending fell $715 million at Kroger-branded stores and $516 million at Ralphs, as shoppers made 9 million and 5.5 million fewer trips, respectively, compared to a year earlier.

Fry's Food Stores, also owned by Kroger, went the other way, gaining $365 million in spending on 8.5 million additional trips, according to Numerator.

Lower-income households are walking

Kroger added more than 1 million high-income households over the past year. It lost 700,000 lower-income households in the same stretch.

Numerator found low-income Kroger shoppers, defined as households earning under $40,000 a year, cut their CPG spending at Kroger by 5.2% year-over-year, driven by 30 million fewer trips. Numerator calls this a $1 billion spending gap, though it notes low-income households pulled back slightly less at Kroger than they did at Walmart.

Category data shows where wallets are still open and where they are not. Beverages, candy, and canned goods grew $800 million combined over the year. Household items like laundry detergent and cleaners fell $97 million, and health and beauty products dropped $178 million.

Kroger's fresh private-label lineup, spanning produce, meat, deli, seafood and in-store bakery, grew $420 million.

Foran's price-cut gamble

CEO Greg Foran, who took over in February 2026 as the first externally recruited CEO in Kroger's 143-year history and succeeded Ron Sargent's stint as interim chief since March 2025, has staked his turnaround on lowering prices. "The basket has to come down," Foran said in May 2026, according to Bloomberg. "It needs to be across thousands of products, and it has to be something that passes the commonsense piece with customers."

He has reason to move. A Consumer Reports pricing study found Kroger runs 14.8% above Walmart's basket cost, while Costco undercuts Walmart itself by 21.8%. That is a structural price gap Kroger has to close before it can even talk about winning shoppers back.

Q2 numbers: a mixed picture

For the quarter ended Aug. 15, 2026, Kroger posted comparable sales excluding fuel up roughly 1.0%, matching first-quarter pace but a sharp deceleration from 3.2% growth in the same quarter a year earlier. Digital sales rose 12% year-over-year and now make up about 11% of total food sales. Gross margin narrowed to 22.7% from 23.0%, pressured by transportation costs, a heavier fuel mix, and deflation in categories like eggs.

On the Sept. 11 earnings call, Kroger cut its full-year comparable-sales guidance, saying it now expects comp sales excluding fuel to rise by as much as 0.8%, down from a prior high end of 2%. Management said the cut reflects both cautious consumer spending and pressure on its pharmacy business from federally negotiated drug price cuts. At the same time, Kroger raised its adjusted EPS guidance to $5.10-$5.30 and adjusted FIFO operating profit guidance to $5.0-$5.2 billion, helped by stronger e-commerce margins and tariff refunds funneled into price cuts.

Kroger shares are down roughly 9% for the year through early September, according to Briefs.co, while the S&P 500 is up about 11% over the same stretch.

Store traffic has also softened. Kroger's overall foot traffic fell 0.22% in July, ranking 13th among 16 grocery retailers tracked by Jefferies, and had declined 0.66% over the prior three months, per data cited by Supermarket News.

The counterargument

Foran's defenders would note the raised EPS and profit guidance came in the same quarter as the sales-growth cut, meaning cost discipline and e-commerce gains are partly offsetting the price investment. High-income household growth, private-label strength, and Fry's traffic gains suggest the turnaround has real traction. Broader retail data backs the idea that shoppers are being selective rather than retreating outright. Target and Ross Stores both posted strong second-quarter results and raised guidance in August, according to the Epoch Times, even as TJX's Marmaxx division came in softer than expected. That points to a market where value and experience matter more than a blanket pullback in spending.

Kroger has flagged an October investor update where Foran is expected to lay out a longer financial framework and the pace of cost savings meant to fund the price cuts without further margin erosion. Whether that framework convinces the 700,000 lower-income households who left Kroger this year to come back remains to be seen.