Johnson Floats Lawn Business if GOP Loses House, Three Weeks Before Election Day

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) set off a round of Washington speculation this past week when he talked about life after Congress.

"Heaven forbid, if we lose this majority or whatever, I don't know what my next chapter of life is," Johnson told Fox News. "If God moves on our hearts and says we should, you know, go back to my hometown of Shreveport and start a lawn business, I'll do that with equal fervor."

Election Day is Nov. 3. Decision Desk HQ forecasts Democrats are favored to win the House.

Johnson's team pushes back

Spokesman Lance Trover dismissed the reaction on X. He called the speculation "hilarious" and said it was overshadowing "the massive fundraising numbers announced this morning" and Johnson's travel schedule. He called it a "contrived narrative."

The numbers are real. Johnson raised $30 million in the third quarter, bringing his cycle total to $156 million. Fox News reported that is the most ever raised by a Republican speaker or leader at this point in a cycle. His previous best was $27.5 million in the third quarter of 2024.

He is also spending it. Axios reported Johnson has spread more than $91 million across the party, including $46 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee, $21.5 million for vulnerable incumbents and $7 million for challengers.

The environment

The money is up against a hard map. The Bureau of Labor Statistics put annual inflation at 3.4 percent in its latest report. Gasoline is up roughly 25 percent over the past year, a jump tied largely to disruption in global oil supply from the Iran war.

Pew Research found economic issues are the main driver of the political climate for 29 percent of Americans.

Retiring Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse of Washington put it plainly. "Affordability is a big deal. People see the gas prices every single day."

History is also a problem. The party holding the White House has lost House seats in 90 percent of midterms since 1946. Ballotpedia counted 71 members of Congress, including 44 Republicans, not seeking re-election as of Oct. 2. Brookings has said only 1992 saw more departures in the past century. Open seats mean Republicans defend without an incumbent's built-in edge.

Triage talk inside the GOP

CNN, citing more than a dozen people familiar with internal discussions, reported that House Republicans have watched President Trump's approval numbers sink in their own polling over the last two weeks, including in traditionally red areas. Three people told CNN that Republicans have discussed pulling money from races seen as too hard to win. They named Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, Rep. Tom Kean in New Jersey and an open seat in Nebraska.

Those are anonymous accounts of private talks, and the party disputes the picture. NRCC spokesperson Will Kiley said, "Thirty days out, House Republicans are on offense, and we're outspending Democrats in the final stretch in every race. House Republicans are going to defy history, and we're going to win."

A political aide told CNN that Johnson is "absolutely still convinced" he can hold the House and is not taking any seats "off his board." His team says he plans a rally with Miller-Meeks in Iowa next week, one of the races named in the triage reporting.

Austin Hein, a Republican strategist on Bo French's campaign for the Texas Railroad Commission, told The Epoch Times that polls "always underestimate Republican voters" and that "a lot of the doom and gloom narrative is overstated."

On the trail

Johnson was in Defiance, Ohio, with Republican nominee Derek Merrin, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in the 9th District. Kaptur has held the seat 43 years and beat Merrin in 2024 by less than 1 percent. Johnson blamed a third-party spoiler for the 0.7 percent margin.

Johnson told the roughly 100 people there that angry voters usually turn out in midterms and satisfied ones do not, and that "that is not going to happen this time." He said 22 races are true toss-ups and will decide the majority. He called Ohio's 9th a "top five" race.

Merrin used his time to rebut Democratic attacks on data center tax breaks and Ohio's House Bill 6. He said the data center break dates to 2011, before he took office, and that he co-sponsored the repeal of HB 6, which was repealed in 2021.

Why the remark landed

One GOP lawmaker, speaking anonymously to The Hill, said some Republicans could look for a leader who would act as a check on the Trump administration if Democrats win. "I hear it all the time in the District. We want a check and balance. We don't want a rubber stamp," the lawmaker said. The same member said the blame belongs to "the whole leadership team," not Johnson alone, and said he was not "shocked" by Johnson's remarks.

Johnson won the gavel in 2023 after the party's factional fight over Kevin McCarthy, a compromise choice picked over more senior figures such as Tom Emmer, Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan. He has held a thin majority together through clashes over government funding and the Iran war.

The open questions come after Nov. 3. If Republicans lose the House, Johnson would have to decide whether to seek the minority leader's job, and rivals could challenge him. Trump's reaction to a bad night is also a variable. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said he plans to run again for majority leader and is confident the GOP will hold the Senate.