What Changed Overnight

As of Monday, May 25, the Iran deal is still not done.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said at a weekly briefing that while negotiators have "reached a conclusion on a large portion of the issues," no one can claim a signing is imminent, according to CBS News. He also accused Washington of shifting its positions during talks.

This contradicts the optimism Trump and Rubio have been projecting publicly for days.

Rubio's Confidence vs. Tehran's Caution

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in New Delhi, said he was "very confident" in getting a deal and told reporters the U.S. was giving diplomacy "every chance." According to Bloomberg, he said: "We thought we might have some news last night. Maybe today."

Rubio also pushed back hard on Republican critics, calling their objections to a potential deal "absurd," per The Hill.

Trump posted on Truth Social that talks are "proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner" but told his team "not to rush into a deal" and that "time is on our side," according to CNBC.

The administration is simultaneously projecting confidence while counseling patience.

The Real Sticking Points

Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency said explicitly that the Strait of Hormuz would remain under Iranian management — even in the event of a deal. That language appears in the Iranian draft text exchanged with the U.S., according to CNBC. Fars also dismissed Trump's "largely negotiated" announcement as "incomplete and inconsistent with reality."

Former CIA Director and retired General David Petraeus, speaking at the UBS Asian Investment Conference, offered a different assessment: an acceptable deal means Iran opens the Strait with zero conditions — no tolls, no traffic control, no threat of future closure, per CNBC. If Iran retains any leverage over the waterway, Petraeus said, Tehran gets "strategically strengthened" even though it's been militarily gutted — its navy largely sunk, missile capacity "substantially reduced," no air force to speak of.

The WSJ editorial board has raised the same question: is the U.S. about to bail out a weakened Iranian regime with a 60-day framework that front-loads American concessions before a final deal is even signed?

The Nuclear Program: Still the Elephant in the Room

Trump's "largely negotiated" post last Saturday mentioned reopening the Strait. It said nothing about Iran's nuclear program or its highly enriched uranium stockpile.

His own administration has spent months calling both of those issues non-negotiable red lines.

A senior Trump administration official did tell CBS News that Iranians have "in principle agreed" to disposal of highly enriched uranium. But "in principle" on a nuclear stockpile is not a verified, enforceable commitment.

Petraeus said nuclear issues and Iran's proxy funding — Hezbollah, others — need to be addressed, but "it's not at all clear to me that that's going to be in the near future."

Pakistan's Mediator Just Flew to Beijing

Pakistan's army chief General Asim Munir — a key go-between in U.S.-Iran talks — was in Tehran on Friday and Saturday. As of Monday, he's in Beijing alongside Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, according to CBS News. China has publicly said it will work with Pakistan to "make positive contributions to the early restoration of peace and stability in the Middle East."

China's insertion into the mediation chain comes as a deal is supposedly hours away.

Markets Are Already Pricing In a Win

Global markets moved hard on optimism alone.

Brent crude fell 6.2% to $97.10 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate dropped near $91, according to Bloomberg. European natural gas benchmark futures fell as much as 6.7%, per Bloomberg. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.3%, on track for a third straight session of gains, Bloomberg reported. Japan's Nikkei 225 breached 65,000 for the first time ever, according to CNBC.

Abu Dhabi National Oil has been quietly running tankers through Hormuz with transponders switched off — so-called "dark transits" — to reach buyers, per Bloomberg. Markets are already behaving like the Strait is reopening. The actual deal hasn't been signed.

If talks collapse, expect a sharp reversal in every one of those numbers.

A Small But Telling Detail

The U.S. Treasury quietly issued licenses in April allowing four Iran-sanctioned container ships — the Yogi, Timon, Rantanplan, and Bigli — to be scrapped, according to Bloomberg. GMS CEO Anil Sharma confirmed his firm received the first U.S. permit to purchase these carriers for recycling. All four were linked to the network of Hossein Shamkhani, son of a senior adviser to former Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Sanction carve-outs have been granted before a deal is finalized.

The Outcome

A deal may still come. Rubio says he's confident. Trump says time is on his side. Iran says nothing is imminent and Washington keeps moving the goalposts.

The markets have already placed their bet. If the diplomats can't close, somebody is going to get very badly burned — and it won't be the ayatollahs.