Still No Deal. Markets Priced One In Anyway.

Trump held his Situation Room meeting Friday. He listed his demands publicly on Truth Social. He called it a 'final determination.'

No deal materialized.

According to ZeroHedge citing Axios, U.S. and Iranian negotiators did reach agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire — but Trump has NOT yet approved it. VP J.D. Vance confirmed to AFP that Trump is 'not yet ready' to endorse the MOU, citing unresolved distance on uranium enrichment and stockpiles.

Meanwhile, markets rallied anyway. S&P futures were up for what ZeroHedge noted would be the ninth consecutive week — the best streak since 2023 — all while traders priced in the same Iran deal 'every single day for the past month.'

What Trump Actually Demanded

On Truth Social Friday morning, Trump laid out his non-negotiables. According to CNBC, the list includes:

• Iran must agree to never develop a nuclear weapon
• The Strait of Hormuz must be immediately open with ZERO tolls
• Enriched nuclear material buried at bombed Iranian sites will be 'unearthed' and destroyed by the U.S. in coordination with Iran and the IAEA
• The U.S. naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman 'will now be lifted' (conditions unclear)
• No money exchanged until further notice

Iran's state outlet Fars fired back within hours. Per CNBC, Fars said Trump's post 'raised issues that contradict the provisions of the agreement's text.' Specifically: there is 'no such clause' on toll-free transit in the current draft, and no reference to dismantling nuclear materials, according to Fars citing 'informed sources.'

ZeroHedge, citing Iranian officials who spoke to journalist Jeremy Scahill, reported that Iran had warned in advance that Trump would likely 'mischaracterize' privately agreed terms to promote a 'victor' narrative.

The Ceasefire That Isn't Holding

While diplomats negotiate language, the shooting hasn't stopped.

According to ZeroHedge, Kuwait intercepted a ballistic missile that Iran fired at a U.S. base there — the most recent in a string of military incidents. The U.S. responded with 'defensive strikes' on Iran. Iran also reportedly targeted American ships in the Strait of Hormuz, per Times of Israel accounts cited by ZeroHedge, though those reports were unconfirmed as of publication.

Vance acknowledged the sides are still 'going back and forth on a couple of language points,' including the exact wording on Iran's nuclear capacity. He said Iran 'appears to be negotiating in good faith' — though a missile strike on a U.S. ally's territory the same week complicates that assessment.

Rabobank Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen put it plainly, per ZeroHedge: a 60-day extension 'does not solve anything' unless both sides actually close the gap on the core issues. Those issues — Hormuz, nukes, enriched uranium — remain wide open.

What This Is Costing You

Moody's Analytics, in data shared exclusively with CNBC's Steve Liesman, found the average American household has paid $447.19 in extra energy costs since the war began. Across the country, that's nearly $60 billion pulled out of consumer pockets.

Gas is at $4.39 per gallon for unleaded — up 47% since March, according to AAA. Diesel hit $5.52 per gallon, also up 47%. Airline fares jumped more than 20% in April year-over-year per federal inflation data.

Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi was blunt: if prices hold at current levels, the average household hits nearly $2,000 in extra energy costs at the one-year mark.

That $447 already wiped out the $384 per-household boost from Trump's tax cuts, according to Moody's. Goldman Sachs separately warned the energy price surge will 'erode' consumer spending power through the rest of 2026, hitting lower-income households hardest.

The Fed Is Watching, Not Acting

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman spoke Friday at a conference in Reykjavík, Iceland. Her message: don't hike rates over this.

'Reacting to temporarily elevated energy price inflation would add unwarranted policy restraint,' Bowman said, per CNBC. She argued that history shows central banks shouldn't overreact to temporary energy shocks.

The Fed's benchmark inflation gauge — the PCE index — came in at 3.8% in April, well above the 2% target, per Commerce Department data reported by CNBC. Core PCE ran at 3.3%. However, the Dallas Fed's 'trimmed mean' measure puts inflation closer to 2.3%, suggesting the energy spike is skewing the headline numbers hard.

Markets currently see virtually zero chance of rate cuts through at least 2027. Three members of the FOMC dissented from the most recent post-meeting statement that left open the possibility of future cuts.

Oman Gets Squeezed

One angle almost nobody is covering adequately: Oman is now in the crosshairs.

Trump on Wednesday said of Oman at a Cabinet meeting: 'Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we'll have to blow them up.'

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent followed Thursday with a formal warning that the U.S. would 'aggressively' sanction Oman if it helped Iran establish any tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz, per CNBC. Oman controls geography critical to Hormuz traffic — it's not a bystander.

Brian Katulis, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, called these threats an 'unusual change in posture.' Threatening a security partner with military force while simultaneously trying to negotiate a peace deal presents a significant contradiction in U.S. diplomacy.

Status Update

Three months in. No deal. Missiles still flying. Gas at $4.39. American families down $447 and counting. Markets celebrating a deal that doesn't exist yet.

If this ends tomorrow, great. If it doesn't, Zandi's $2,000-per-household projection starts looking like an undercount.