Heart Valve Disease Death Rate Among Americans 65+ Rose Nearly 5% From 2018 to 2023, Preliminary AHA Study Finds

The long fall in heart valve disease deaths has stopped, according to new research from a Pittsburgh hospital. It is also preliminary.

The death rate from valvular heart disease among Americans 65 and older rose from about 104 to 109.2 per 100,000 people between 2018 and 2023. That is a jump of nearly 5%. The American Heart Association released the findings Nov. 2 ahead of its Scientific Sessions in Chicago, which opened Friday, Nov. 6 and run through Monday, Nov. 9. The work has not been peer-reviewed.

What the numbers show

The team was led by Dr. Hritvik Jain, an internal medicine resident at Allegheny General Hospital. It pulled death certificate data from the CDC's WONDER database for 1999 through 2023 and counted 1,204,490 valve-related deaths in adults 65 and older. Of those, 57.1% were women and 42.9% were men.

The age-adjusted rate peaked at 123.2 per 100,000 in 1999. It fell by an average of 0.87% a year to a low point around 2018, just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Then it turned. From 2018 to 2023 it rose by an average of 1.52% a year.

Using statistical forecasting, the researchers project the rate will hold at 109.2 through 2040 instead of resuming its decline.

"Our study found that the decades-long decline in deaths from heart valve disease has stopped," Jain said. He called for "earlier detection, timely treatment and equitable access to specialized valve care, particularly for the oldest adults and those living in rural communities."

Who is dying

Men had a higher rate than women: 124.7 versus 103.1 per 100,000. Non-Hispanic white adults had the highest rate of any racial or ethnic group studied, at 122.4. Residents of nonmetropolitan areas fared worse than those in metro areas, 120.5 versus 110.1. The data show Western states carried the highest regional burden.

Nonrheumatic aortic valve disease, most often aortic stenosis, accounted for most of the deaths. In that condition the valve that lets blood leave the heart stiffens and narrows.

Age showed the sharpest split. In 1999, adults 85 and older died at more than 15 times the rate of adults 65 to 69. Later birth cohorts do better in their late 60s. That improvement does not carry into very old age: at 85 and older, newer cohorts have higher death rates than earlier ones at the same age.

Why is it rising?

The study measures deaths. It does not establish a cause for the reversal. Deaths were counted when valve disease was listed as either the underlying or a contributing cause on the death certificate.

Dr. Jawad Haider, co-director of the structural heart program at Hartford HealthCare Heart & Vascular Institute at Hartford Hospital, offered one reading to Newsweek. "Despite remarkable advances in minimally invasive valve therapies, mortality from valvular heart disease has plateaued," he said. "Many patients are living longer but are also developing more chronic medical conditions, making treatment more complex and limiting the benefits of intervention."

Haider also said deaths among people with valve disease may reflect several overlapping conditions rather than the valve problem alone. Jain's team has not tested that explanation.

The scale of the problem

The American Heart Association's 2026 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics put the number of people living with heart valve disease worldwide at more than 80 million. In the U.S., the condition contributes to more than 57,000 deaths a year.

The PREVUE-VALVE study, presented in October 2025, estimated at least 4.7 million Americans ages 65 to 85 have moderate or worse valve disease.

A separate study this year in the Journal of the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions found aortic stenosis death rates for adults 65 and older fell only modestly from 1999 to 2024. Rates rose among those 85 and older and in nonmetropolitan areas.

The American Heart Association launched Target: Aortic Stenosis in 2020 to push earlier diagnosis and consistent hospital care. It added a Heart Valve Initiative in 2025. The rise that began in 2018 continued after the first of those programs launched. Whether either one moves the national number is not yet known.

Limits and disclosures

The findings are an abstract for a conference, not a published paper. Death certificate data can be imprecise about causes. Forecasts to 2040 are model projections, not measurements. One author disclosed ties to the pharmaceutical industry.

The presentation in Chicago runs through Nov. 9. The study still faces peer review, and that process will show whether the 2018 turning point and the flat forecast hold up.