GOP Groups Move Money From North Carolina to Kansas as Democrats Lead Generic Ballot by 8.5 Points

With the Nov. 3 election approaching, the fight has moved past the Cook Political Report ratings and into where each party is actually spending. The answer is not flattering to Republicans.

GOP spending groups have dropped North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper leads former RNC chairman Michael Whatley by 9 points, according to the Daily Wire's rundown of the race. That money is going to Kansas, where Sen. Roger Marshall is in a single-digit race against Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton. Kansas is a state that was not supposed to need defending.

The national picture

The RealClearPolitics generic ballot average has Democrats ahead of Republicans 51.2% to 42.7%. Trump's approval stands at about 37%, according to the Silver Bulletin average. It sat near 42% when he launched strikes on Iran with Israel at the end of February, then dropped below 40%.

History is not on the president's side. Since 1934, the president's party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterms. It has gained seats in only three of 23 elections.

NPR reports that voters are unhappy with the Iran war, rising gas prices, tariffs and immigration enforcement. It also reports that the share of voters who strongly disapprove of Trump is higher than at any point in either of his terms.

The House

Republicans hold a 218-214 advantage. Cook lists 43 competitive districts, 22 of them toss-ups. An NPR analysis of campaign targets, ad reservations and outside spending by Trump-aligned super PACs found more than 90 districts where money is being committed in the closing weeks.

That is a much bigger battlefield than the one Cook's list suggests. NPR's read of the spending is that the question is no longer whether Democrats win the House but by how much.

Fox News Power Rankings, which the network labels pre-election predictions, put 215 seats in the Democratic column and 201 in the Republican column. Redistricting complicates every forecast. NPR estimates new lines now cover about 1 in 10 registered voters across several states. The Epoch Times notes that the mid-decade redraws gave Republicans a slight edge, so a Democratic House majority could be thin.

The Senate

Republicans hold a 53-47 majority and cannot lose more than three seats without losing control, according to the Daily Wire. Here are the races as the Daily Wire and Epoch Times describe them:

• Texas: Democrat James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton 51% to 45% in a New York Times/Siena poll. Republicans are spending tens of millions to defend the state.
• Georgia: Sen. Jon Ossoff leads Rep. Mike Collins by an average of 8 points.
• Ohio: Former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Sen. Jon Husted 47% to 44%, a point tighter than last week.
• Maine: Democrat Troy Jackson holds a 0.1-point edge over Sen. Susan Collins, 47.6% to 47.5%. Jackson replaced Graham Platner, who left the race after misconduct accusations that he denied.
• Iowa: Democrat Josh Turek leads Rep. Ashley Hinson by less than a point.
• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers by roughly 3.5 to 4 points. Former President Barack Obama is set to campaign with him in Detroit later this month.

Democrats carry their own risks. El-Sayed spoke at several Democratic Socialists of America events between 2017 and 2020 and now says he has distanced himself from the group and the label.

What Republicans are counting on

Republicans have a case. Collins has a reputation for beating her polls. The Daily Wire says the GOP is counting on a large influx of cash and a sizable polling error. Sen. Schmitt said in a Fox News video interview that Republicans will hold the Senate, though he called the House "a dog fight."

Democrats see it differently. Sen. Chris Murphy said on MS NOW's Deadline that Republican senators in Kansas, Nebraska, Alaska and Ohio are likely to lose because they keep voting to continue the Iran war. "It's a cult, not a political party," Murphy said, claiming the senators know the war is unpopular but follow Trump's instructions. Voters will deliver the verdict.

The Washington Post, citing the AP, reports that the outcome also bears on Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer. He has broad caucus support, but some in the party have said he should step down for a new generation.

The next test comes Nov. 3, when Americans vote on all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats. Whether Collins overperforms again in Maine and whether Kansas stays red are the two questions Republican money is now being spent to answer.