FOIA Documents Show CFTC Opened Three Unreported Polymarket Investigations on Pardons, Iran and Google Bets

Since CFTC chairman Michael Selig approved a private probe into Polymarket's Biden-pardon markets in early May 2026, federal regulators have opened at least three separate insider-trading investigations into the prediction market platform, according to voting records obtained by WIRED through a Freedom of Information Act request. None of the three had been reported before WIRED's disclosure.

Three Probes, One Pattern

The first order, approved by Selig in early May, authorized the CFTC's enforcement division to subpoena documents and take testimony over potential insider trading on Polymarket contracts tied to pardons issued by former president Joseph Biden. WIRED reports the order came weeks after NPR identified a trader who netted more than $300,000 correctly betting Biden would issue preemptive pardons to Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger and Adam Schiff.

At the end of May, Selig signed off on a second investigation, this one into "Iran event contracts." That order followed a 60 Minutes report on a network of accounts that made $2.4 million on Iran-related Polymarket bets with a 98 percent win rate, according to WIRED.

In July, Selig approved a third probe focused on Google-themed contracts. Paul Hayeck, the CFTC's acting enforcement director, wrote in emails obtained by WIRED that the investigation targets people who may have traded on advance knowledge of Google's 2025 Year in Search rankings, and that it runs parallel to a Southern District of New York investigation. Hayeck specified the case is separate from the pending charges against Michele Spagnuolo, a Google engineer already accused of insider trading tied to the same market.

Joseph Konizeski, a former chief trial attorney in the CFTC's enforcement division, told WIRED that the timing is significant. "If these investigations are being prompted solely by press reports of potential violations of the Commodities Exchange Act, that's a significant sign of weakness in this regulatory scheme," he said. In each case, the agency moved only after journalists had already surfaced the suspicious trading.

A Bigger Data Problem

The FOIA disclosure lands alongside separate reporting that suggests the pattern extends beyond three markets. Bloomberg's analysis of roughly 34,000 Polymarket trades found about $200 million bearing the hallmarks of insider trading, concentrated in geopolitical bets on Iran and Venezuela, according to Startup Fortune's summary of that reporting.

Reuters reported on August 20 that the nonprofit Anti-Corruption Data Collective examined Polymarket International markets settled through May 5 and flagged 556 wallets it labeled "Orcas." These accounts placed at least $2,500 within an hour on long-shot outcomes priced at 35 percent or lower, often shortly after opening, then cashed out. Of those, 152 wallets bet specifically on military and defense markets and earned a combined $8 million, according to the ACDC findings as reported by Reuters.

The clearest example of the underlying risk is criminal, not statistical. The Justice Department charged US Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke on April 23 with using classified information about Operation Absolute Resolve, the military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, to place Polymarket wagers prosecutors say netted him more than $400,000. Polymarket has said it identified the trader, referred the matter to the DOJ, and cooperated with investigators.

Senator Richard Blumenthal wrote to Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan in April warning the platform risked becoming, in his words, an "illicit market to sell and exploit national security secrets unlike any in history," and cautioned it could function as a target for foreign intelligence services. Blumenthal's characterization is his own. Polymarket has not been charged with wrongdoing, and no additional enforcement action against the company itself has been announced.

The Newest Cluster

Dow Jones Newswires reported September 11 that a cluster of Polymarket accounts won big betting on companies audited by KPMG, a finding that surfaced after the Wall Street Journal reported a KPMG employee is under investigation for alleged insider trading. Details of that investigation, including which markets or how much money changed hands, have not been made public.

The same day, Morningstar's roundup of Dow Jones financial headlines noted Polymarket has appointed its first chief financial officer, Warren Jenson, who previously held finance chief roles at Amazon, Electronic Arts, Delta Air Lines and NBC, as the company pursues US growth plans.

What's Unproven, and What's Not

No charges have been filed in the pardon, Iran, or Google investigations WIRED disclosed. The CFTC's orders authorize fact-finding, not prosecution, and Hayeck's emails describe the Google probe as still identifying "additional individuals who may have engaged in insider trading," language that stops short of any finding. The Justice Department and CFTC closed earlier probes into whether US users were evading Polymarket's geographic restrictions without bringing charges in July 2025, according to Bloomberg's reporting cited by Startup Fortune, so a closed investigation here would not be unprecedented.

What is established: the CFTC's own paper trail shows all three of its 2026 Polymarket probes began only after a journalist's story surfaced the suspicious activity first, not through the agency's own detection systems. Whether that reflects an agency stretched thin, one deliberately deferential to a fast-growing industry, or simply a regulator that relies on public reporting as one input among several is a judgment the CFTC has not addressed on the record. The agency has not responded publicly to Konizeski's characterization, and it remains unclear whether the KPMG-linked trading cluster will produce a fourth investigation.