Flávio Bolsonaro Finishes First in Brazil's Opening Round as Populist Right Gains Ground Abroad and Republicans Trail at Home

Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil's presidential election last Sunday. The tally was 47% to 45%, short of a majority, so the two go to a runoff. One source puts that runoff on Oct. 25.

Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was imprisoned after being convicted of plotting a coup against Lula following the 2022 election. Lula has only three weeks before the runoff to mount a comeback and stop the most populous democracy in Latin America from careening to the right. Lula was leading in preelection polls, but Bolsonaro is considered likely, though not certain, to win the runoff.

A hemisphere moving right

Brazil fits a pattern. Javier Milei defeated the Peronist candidate in Argentina in November 2023 after attacking high inflation and bloated bureaucracy. In the 15 months beginning in April 2025, conservative populists defeated leftist candidates in Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Peru and Colombia.

A Bolsonaro win in the runoff would extend that run to Latin America's most populous democracy. It would also advance what CNN's political analysis calls Trump's project of remaking the Western Hemisphere in his political image.

Europe's populists

The trend is not limited to the Americas. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) just won the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government is flatlining. Marine Le Pen leads the polls ahead of France's presidential election next year.

Italy's Giorgia Meloni, whose political roots lie in a populist party that had been excluded from power for years, heads the longest-serving government in post-World War II Italy. Next month's snap election in Spain is likely to put the populist Vox party into a governing coalition, according to one analysis.

Britain is the partial exception. Reform UK has lost its poll lead since Labour ditched Keir Starmer and installed Andy Burnham as prime minister. Reform still polls ahead of the Conservatives.

These parties are not carbon copies of Trump. CNN's analysis notes that some predate his movement. They do share a protectionist streak and hostility to elites, globalization and mass immigration, and the Trump administration has openly backed them.

The home front looks different

The political picture in the United States is weaker for Trump's party. One analysis of the 2026 Senate map says the early lineup looked favorable to Republicans, with only one Republican defending a seat in a state Kamala Harris carried and all but one defending seats in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024.

That has shifted. Democrats have sprinted to big polling leads in Georgia and North Carolina, according to that analysis, and Republicans trail in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, all states Trump carried by double digits two years ago.

The same analysis blames persistent inflation, "some of it plausibly triggered by Trump's tariffs." That is one commentator's judgment, not a settled finding.

It also reports that Democrats are already planning investigations of Trump's finances and drafting articles of impeachment, and that they have high hopes of a 2028 trifecta of House, Senate and presidency.

CNN's analysis says the same failure to tackle the cost of living and deliver promised change that is hurting Republicans as the midterm elections draw near is fueling populist challengers abroad.

The centrist response and a left-wing counter-current

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Burnham are both trying to blunt the populist right. CNN's analysis describes them as adopting rhetoric and programs meant to reinforce moderate, centrist government.

The analysis also points to a separate reaction inside the U.S. It says the success of democratic socialists in some midterm primaries heralds a new wave of left-wing populism, one stirred by Trump's own violent political shifts.

That cuts against any tidy story of a global right-wing tide. Anti-incumbent anger in the U.S. is producing candidates on the left as well as challengers to Republicans.

What comes next

The first test is the Brazilian runoff. The first-round margin was two points, and Lula is left with only a few weeks to turn it around.

After that come Spain's snap election next month, France's presidential race next year, and the U.S. midterm elections.