First Post-Debate Poll Shows Pratt at 22%, Bass at 30% — Viral Momentum Hasn't Moved the Numbers Enough

The Poll Is Out. It's Not Great for Pratt.

The first survey taken after the May 6 debate is in. Emerson College Polling and Inside California Politics surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters on May 9-10, and the results were published by Breitbart.

Karen Bass: 30%. Spencer Pratt: 22%. Nithya Raman: 19%. Undecided: 16%.

For context, back in March those same numbers were Bass at 20%, Pratt at 10%, Raman at 9%, and a massive 51% undecided. The undecideds collapsed — from 51% to 16% — and all three candidates gained roughly the same proportional share. Pratt did NOT break away.

The theory was that a dominant debate performance would pull undecideds disproportionately toward Pratt. According to Breitbart, that simply hasn't happened. At least not yet.

The margin of error is ±3 points. That means Raman could theoretically edge Pratt out of the top two. If she does, Pratt is done — the June 2 primary determines which two candidates advance to the general, regardless of party.

The Math Is Ugly for a General Election Too

Even if Pratt survives the primary, the general election picture is rough. Raman's 19% is almost entirely progressive Democratic voters. The idea that those voters flip to a Republican over Bass is fantasy. Breitbart's John Nolte put it bluntly: Pratt can't hit 40% even if every single undecided breaks his way.

Los Angeles has been hemorrhaging moderate and conservative residents for years. The people who remain vote in a way that reflects the city's current state — and that state is a one-party ecosystem. No amount of viral content changes that structural reality.

Bass Finally Reacts — And It's Not Helping Her

Meanwhile, Karen Bass sat down with Fox 11's Elex Michaelson and weighed in on Pratt's AI-generated campaign videos. According to TMZ, Bass called the content "taking on a violent turn" and warned that "hateful" messages "provoke people who are unstable."

She also admitted she'd never heard of Spencer Pratt or The Hills before he entered the race — and questioned whether his online following actually consists of L.A. voters who will show up on election day. It's a fair tactical concern. It's also exactly the kind of dismissive response that fuels Pratt's entire campaign narrative.

Bass calling AI political satire "violent and dangerous" while her city has actual violence on its streets is a gift to Pratt's campaign. He didn't waste it.

Pratt's New AI Ad: He Made One for Bass

In what might be his sharpest move yet, Pratt released an AI-generated "attack ad" — except it's supposedly from Bass's campaign, and it's deliberately absurd. According to the Daily Wire, the fake ad features characters defending drug use on the streets, complaining that Pratt wants to force homeless people into treatment, and a mom being chased through a park who says Spencer "wants to get rid of" the drug addicts she's running from — then asks, "Does he want me to be fat?"

It ends with a photo of Bass alongside Fidel Castro and the tagline: "Stay the course with Bass."

Pratt called it "crazy desperate" on X and said Bass "got FOMO." The clip is racking up views.

The ad's effectiveness lies partly in the comedy, but also in what it does with actual arguments from Bass's real supporters — that current homeless policy is compassionate and disrupting it is cruel. Pratt made that argument sound insane. To most voters, it is.

The Real Union Attack Ad Backfired Spectacularly

Then there's the union-funded attack ad that may have done more damage to Bass than to Pratt. According to the Daily Wire, the spot — paid for by L.A. Unions Opposed to Spencer Pratt for Mayor 2026 and the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor AFL-CIO — listed Pratt's positions as attacks: he wants to end taxpayer-funded housing for the homeless, hire thousands more police officers instead of social workers, and reduce the power of public employee unions.

Pratt's response was essentially: "Yes, and?"

For voters outside the union base, that ad reads as a Pratt endorsement. Organized labor messaging is badly out of touch with the median L.A. voter who is fed up with homeless camps, crime, and a city government that answers to unions first.

What the Debate Actually Showed

Los Angeles Times columnist Gustavo Arellano — not a Pratt ally — called the debate two winners and one loser. Bass and Pratt both performed credibly. Raman was the loser: repeatedly talked over her time, got tongue-tied, and played the victim card when she claimed Bass and Pratt were "teaming up" against her, which drew laughs from the audience.

The Washington Post's syndicated piece from The Hill, written by pollsters Douglas Schoen and Carly Cooperman, acknowledged that Pratt "displayed a noteworthy mix of confidence and message discipline for a political newcomer" and that the debate effectively narrowed the race to a two-person contest between Pratt and Bass. They also noted Bass was more fluent on policy specifics.

Left-leaning coverage is consistent on one thing: Pratt is a legitimate threat, not a joke candidate. That's a meaningful shift from how he was covered three months ago.

What Comes Next

Pratt is running the most effective opposition campaign in Los Angeles in recent memory, and he's doing it with almost no traditional political infrastructure. His debate performance, his ads, and his media strategy have forced a sitting incumbent to go on television to complain about cartoon violence.

But the poll is the poll. Viral views don't vote. And June 2 is coming fast.

If Pratt doesn't close the gap in the next three weeks — and there are no more debates scheduled before the primary — he risks being defined by his online presence rather than his ballot count. Being the most entertaining candidate in the race doesn't mean anything if Nithya Raman sneaks into second place and ends the whole thing early.

The race is real. The math is hard. Pratt has three weeks to prove the two aren't mutually exclusive.