Early Voting Opens in Virginia and Three Other States as Midterm Campaign Turns on Gas Prices and the Iran War

Early voting for the 2026 midterms began Friday, September 18, in Virginia, where in-person balloting opened statewide, according to the Associated Press. Voters in Idaho, Minnesota and South Dakota can also cast absentee ballots in person starting Friday, with more states opening early voting windows in the coming weeks, the AP reported. Election Day is November 3, six weeks out.

The stakes are straightforward: Republicans currently hold both the House and Senate, and both are in play. If Democrats flip either chamber, the AP notes it would "most likely" trigger investigations and oversight fights for the rest of Trump's term.

The economy voters are grading

This campaign is running on kitchen-table math. The Wall Street Journal, cited by The Guardian, reports mortgage rates are nearing 7%, consumer prices rose 3.4% over the year through August, and gas prices are close to their highest levels since 2022. That's a rough environment for the party holding the White House and both chambers of Congress heading into an election.

Iran war drags into month seven

The war in Iran, which Trump initially said would wrap up in weeks, has stretched into its seventh month. Iran still can disrupt regional shipping and add pressure to global energy prices, according to The Guardian. Trump is scheduled to address the United Nations on Tuesday, where he's expected to frame the campaign as a win.

Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East adviser to both Republican and Democratic administrations, told Reuters: "We are seeing what happens when a president launches a war of choice without anticipating the unintended consequences."

Victor Davis Hanson, writing for the Daily Signal, argued Iran's own complaints about the conflict, including objections to U.S. strikes on dual-use infrastructure and the way the war is being fought from the air rather than on the ground, are signs of Iranian desperation, not American failure. The two camps aren't going to agree on this assessment before Election Day.

Trump's fights over how elections are run

Trump has continued pushing to reshape election administration, including court challenges, a federal hunt for noncitizen voters, and pressure on states to hand over voter data, according to the AP. The Supreme Court rejected Trump's attempt to restrict mail ballots this week, though several other administration efforts are still working through the courts.

Trump's team has argued hundreds of thousands of noncitizens are illegally registered to vote, a claim that taps into a real and mainstream concern many voters have about voter roll accuracy and election security. But the AP reports research continues to show noncitizen voting is exceptionally rare. The specific hundreds-of-thousands claim isn't backed by the evidence in these reports. That doesn't settle the broader argument over whether voter ID and roll-cleanup laws are worth having regardless of fraud rates.

Redistricting reshuffled a tenth of the country

The midterms follow a wave of mid-decade redistricting that started when Trump pushed Texas Republicans to redraw the state's congressional map, with California following suit, per the AP. Research cited by the AP shows one in ten Americans will vote this fall in a different congressional district than they did in 2024. A Supreme Court ruling earlier this year weakened Voting Rights Act protections against racially discriminatory redistricting, and both parties are expected to keep pushing new maps ahead of 2028.

Polls may be lying to you

Fox News contributor Lee Carter cautioned that summer polling has already been wrong repeatedly this cycle. Abdul El-Sayed was expected to cruise to a Michigan Senate primary win and took it by roughly a point. Francesca Hong led David Crowley by about 20 points in two Wisconsin polls and lost. A public poll had Angie Craig ahead of Peggy Flanagan by two points in Minnesota; Flanagan won by nearly 20. Carter's point: the voters who decide midterms mostly aren't paying attention yet, and Republicans are betting a first-ever national midterm convention in Dallas can turn attention into actual votes.

Other fights running alongside the vote

Separately, the State Department has approved a potential $24.3 billion sale of 48 F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, over concerns from the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency that China could gain access to sensitive F-35 technology through Saudi bases, according to the New York Times. And two Washington institutions remain in court: former U.S. Institute of Peace staff are fighting an effort to carve Trump's name into their headquarters, while a federal judge has ordered the Kennedy Center to give 30 days' notice before any major physical changes, after Trump floated demolishing it amid a naming and renovation dispute.

None of that is on the ballot directly. But it's the backdrop voters in Virginia, Idaho, Minnesota and South Dakota are casting ballots against, with six weeks left before most of the country gets its turn.