Democrats Lead 240 to 147 in House Calls With Nearly 50 Races Open, and Mississippi and Alaska Senate Races Are Separated by Roughly 1,100 and 600 Votes

The midterm count is still running. As of Thursday, Nov. 5, the Associated Press count had Democrats at 240 House seats and Republicans at 147, with just under 50 races uncalled.

Erin Covey, U.S. House editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told NPR that Democrats are on track for as many as 258 or 259 seats. That would top their 21st-century high of 257 in 2008.

Before the election, Covey said, Democrats told her they would be happy with 230. They are already past that.

The redistricting gamble backfired

Republicans redrew maps in seven states to help themselves. Covey says they will likely pick up three seats from it.

Democrats, by her count, will pick up six seats from redistricting in California and Utah. Her read: the new GOP maps "just weren't enough to withstand the incredibly difficult political environment that Republicans were in this cycle."

North Carolina is the sharpest example. Republicans went into the cycle holding 10 of the state's 14 House seats. Covey says they may now hold only four, depending on close races still uncalled.

She says former Gov. Roy Cooper was on course to win the Senate race by a resounding margin, and Republicans, she said, "pulled out" of what had started as a competitive statewide contest.

Two Senate seats on a knife's edge

In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by a little over 1,100 votes, according to the BBC's tally. The state has until Nov. 10 to count provisional ballots and mail ballots that arrive late.

Hyde-Smith had Trump's endorsement and campaigned alongside him. A Colom win would make him the first Democrat to take that seat since 1982.

In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by a little over 600 votes, with more ballots still to be counted. Covey said that contest is expected to go to ranked-choice voting, which would not be tabulated until Nov. 18.

The race carries a side dispute. A second candidate named Dan J. Sullivan was on the ballot. The New York Times reported allegations that Peltola and Alaska Democrats recruited that independent to pull votes from the incumbent.

Peltola denied knowing of any such arrangement.

House races still being counted

In Colorado's 4th District, Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert trails Democrat Eileen Laubacher with about 7% of ballots left to count, per the BBC. In Tennessee's 4th, Republican Rep. Scott DesJarlais is behind Democrat Victoria Broderick.

In Arizona's 2nd, Republican Rep. Eli Crane leads Democrat Jonathan Nez by fewer than 4,000 votes, with many ballots outstanding. Races in Nevada and Ohio could also add to the Democratic total.

A court fight over ballots on Election Day

On Election Day, the Ninth Circuit voted 6-5 to reinstate a stay of restrictions on the Trump administration. That lets federal officials resume asking state election administrators to set aside ballots suspected of being cast by noncitizens. The requests also warn that knowingly counting such votes could expose officials to federal prosecution.

States are not required to comply, and the order does not require them to segregate ballots or establish that any voter is a noncitizen. It was the court's third order in roughly 12 hours, after conflicting rulings over limits a district judge had imposed.

Chief Judge Mary Murguia, an Obama appointee, dissented, warning that prosecution threats could leave election officials facing conflicting legal obligations. Judge Roopali Desai, a Biden appointee, raised concerns about confusion and possible disenfranchisement.

Trump appointees Eric Miller and Mark Bennett acknowledged the DOJ's legal interpretations might lack merit. Their position was that courts generally cannot bar the department from stating its view of criminal law.

Other Election Day problems included ballot-scanner trouble in New York's Westchester County and misleading texts about polling-place changes in Georgia. More than 54 million Americans had voted early, per the AP.

The next fixed date is Nov. 10, when Mississippi's window to count provisional and late-arriving mail ballots closes. With Colom's lead near 1,100 votes and Peltola's near 600, the remaining ballots could decide both seats. The House total will keep moving as the roughly 48 uncalled races finish counting.