Danish Intelligence Warns Russia Could Attack a NATO Country Within Months

Since Volodymyr Zelenskyy stood before the UN General Assembly last week and called Vladimir Putin "Patient Zero" for a war he says could spread across Europe, the warnings out of Western capitals have only gotten sharper.

The latest and most specific came from Denmark. The Danish Defence Intelligence Service, in a report published Thursday, said there is a "low but growing risk" Russia could launch long-range strikes on NATO infrastructure supporting Ukraine, or send a small number of troops without insignia into a neighboring country, within the coming months, according to The Guardian.

The warning came hours after a fire broke out overnight at a Starlink satellite station in Poland's Masovian voivodeship. Polish Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski called it an "act of sabotage," telling The Guardian it was "deliberately designed to disable the station" and disrupted internet access for several institutions, including the Ukrainian military. Gawkowski said no one has been officially blamed, but that "many signs suggest this aligns with Russia's new doctrine of attack." Russia has denied involvement in similar incidents, including a drone attack Germany blamed on Moscow at Leipzig/Halle airport last month.

A source described by The Guardian as familiar with Moscow's thinking said Russian military command believes NATO countries are already helping guide missiles and drones against Russian forces, and that Moscow therefore has "the right to respond in kind." This assertion from an anonymous source close to the Kremlin's position is not an established fact. No NATO government has confirmed direct involvement in guiding Ukrainian strikes.

DOJ Charges Five in Alleged Russian Plot

CNN reported this week that federal prosecutors charged five people allegedly working with Russian intelligence in a network plotting attacks and murders in multiple countries, including inside the United States, with prosecutors also alleging the group commissioned attacks on civilian and military infrastructure in Europe. CNN global affairs analyst Brett McGurk, who served in national security roles under four presidents, wrote that Russia's pattern fits a broader strategy: cyberattacks, sabotage, arson, drones and deniable "gray zone" operations that stop short of conventional war.

Governments across Europe are visibly bracing. Belarus, Russia's closest ally, ran large military exercises this week near the Suwałki Gap, the roughly 65-mile corridor linking the Baltic states to the rest of NATO, according to CNN. French President Emmanuel Macron summoned political leaders for a confidential intelligence briefing before announcing new infrastructure protections. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned Russia might disguise drone or missile attacks on NATO territory as accidents. The UK has told citizens to stockpile food and water, and its defense chief called this the "most dangerous" period in decades. Germany is preparing hospitals for a possible attack, and even neutral Switzerland adopted a new national security strategy built around self-defense.

Trump has moved on two fronts. CNN reported he's made progress toward a permanent U.S. Army base in Poland and sent the CIA director on a secret mission to warn Moscow against attacking NATO territory. On the question Zelenskyy says matters most right now, Trump has held back. Zelenskyy said September 25 that Trump made a "final decision" to let Ukraine produce Patriot missiles domestically. Asked about it September 26, Trump wouldn't confirm it, telling reporters he wants Zelenskyy and Putin to "settle" the war instead, according to OilPrice.com.

The Casualty Claim and the Skeptic's Case

Zelenskyy told the UN that nearly 249,000 Russian troops have been killed or seriously wounded in the first eight months of this year alone, and that North Korean troops fighting alongside Russia have taken heavy losses in exchange for Russian missile and drone technology, per European Sting's summary of the UN address. These are Ukrainian government figures, not independently verified casualty counts, and should be read that way.

There's a fair skeptical case here. Russia denies orchestrating the Poland fire, the Leipzig airport drone incident, and the broader sabotage pattern European officials describe. Intelligence assessments like Denmark's use words like "low but growing risk," not certainty, and NATO officials themselves are divided on how imminent any Russian move against alliance territory actually is, per The Guardian. Governments warning citizens to stockpile food also stand to benefit politically from higher defense budgets, a dynamic worth watching even when the underlying threat assessment is sound.

Meanwhile the war grinds on inside Ukraine. Russian drone strikes overnight into September 27 killed at least four people, one in Kyiv and three in the Zaporizhzhya region, Ukrainian officials said, according to OilPrice.com.

No NATO country has been attacked. No formal attribution has been made for the Poland fire. And Trump's decision on Patriot missile production for Ukraine, the thing Zelenskyy says he needs most, remains unresolved as of this week.